April 28, 2009

Pesca inferior

Morgan Stanley take a long look at quantitative easing (QE) by central banks and the desired effect on money supply;
Bottom line: Our survey of money supply measures, interest rate levels and spreads all suggest that active and passive QE is doing what it is supposed to do: increase money supply and improve financing conditions. Importantly, most central banks are not even halfway through with their announced active QE programmes, and the size of these programmes could easily be increased, if needed. Thus, we continue to expect global QE to be an important contributor to a bottoming of the global economy over the summer and to prevent temporary and ‘good’ deflation (deriving from declines in energy and food prices) from turning into lasting and ‘bad’ deflation.