The Australian economy in 2009 has held up much better than had been expected earlier in the year. Australia is the only developed economy where year-ended growth in GDP has remained positive during the past year. It is now 18 years since Australia has experienced a negative in year-ended GDP growth, a very prolonged economic expansion. With the economy having only recently entered a new upswing, it is reasonable to assume that we will see this growth extended for a few more years yet.
Over the next few years, Australia is also expected to see a further expansion of the resources sector, including the development of some very large gas projects. Mining investment, which is already at record levels as a share of GDP, could rise substantially further in the next five years or so
If this scenario eventuates, it will have powerful and broad-ranging implications for the economy.
November 25, 2009
RBA forecasting a boom
From Deputy Governor Ric Battellino