March 31, 2009

Medicare - the trend is your friend

Using data provided by Medicare Australia we can see how QuantiFERON (QFT) is being accepted - bear in mind that QFT reimbursement is limited to the detection of latent tuberculosis in an immunosuppressed or immunocompromised patient whereas TST is unrestricted.

Click on image for FULL SIZE


If we extend the data range to include both TST (Mantoux) and QFT and if we accept that the Medicare data is truly representative we can see an interesting trend - TB testing in Australia is increasing and that increase is around 30% pa and the trend is for QFT not TST to match that increase. This could all change if the Australian National Tuberculosis Advisory Committee (NTAC) adopted a view similar to that of the US CDC which "recommends that QFT-G may be used in all circumstances in which the TST is currently used" - currently the NTAC position is that the "TST remains the preferred method of screening for LTBI"

Of course this is only my interpretation of the facts and someone more proficient in statistical analysis may arrive at a different conclusion.




Government failure

Professor Steve Horowitz from St. Lawrence University looks at Government response to particular disasters, in this case Hurricane Katrina, and finds that the bigger the government the less effective the relief . The whole article is worth as it sets various commonly held beliefs on their head.

Making Hurricane Response More Effective: Lessons from the Private Sector and the Coast Guard during Katrina

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


Many assume that the only viable option for emergency response and recovery from a natural disaster is one that is centrally directed. However, highlighted by the poor response from the federal government and the comparatively effective response from private retailers and the Coast Guard after Hurricane Katrina, this assumption seems to be faulty. Big-box retailers such as Wal-Mart were extraordinarily successful in providing help to damaged communities in the days, weeks, and months after the storm. This Policy Comment provides a framework for understanding why private retailers and the Coast Guard mounted an effective response in the Gulf Coast region. Using this framework provides four clear policy recommendations:

1. Give the private sector as much freedom as possible to provide resources for relief and recovery efforts and ensure that its role is officially recognized as part of disaster protocols.
2. Decentralize government relief to local governments and non-governmental organizations and provide that relief in the form of cash or broadly defined vouchers.
3. Move the Coast Guard and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) out of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
4. Reform “Good Samaritan” laws so that private-sector actors are clearly protected when they make good faith efforts to help.

If disaster situations are to be better handled in the future, it is important that institutions are in place so that actors have the appropriate knowledge to act and incentives to behave in ways that benefit others.

The framework and recommendations provided in this paper help to provide a good understanding of the appropriate institution

March 28, 2009

QFT and HCWs in Holland

Letter published in the November 2008 edition of the Journal of the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine (subscription needed)

____________________________________

The Value of Interferon Gamma Release Assays for Diagnosis Infection With Mycobacterium Tuberculosis During an Annual Screening of Health Care Workers

To the Editor: In the Diakonessenhuis in Utrecht, the Netherlands, health care workers (HCW) employed at a department with an increased risk for infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex are routinely screened annually with tuberculin skin testing (TST) and an induration of_10 mm is considered positive. Subjects with a positive TST are referred to the Municipal Public Health Department (MPHD) for treatment or follow-up. During the annual screening in 2005 an unexpected high percentage of positive TST results were found. Two hundred seventy-six HCW had been invited for screening of tuberculosis (TB) infection with TST. Of 246 HCW who received a TST, 198 (80%) returned for reading the TST result. Eight HCW (4%) had a TST induration of 5 to 9 mm of whom two had a negative TST and one had a positive TST in the past. Eleven (5.6%) had a positive TST, of whom six had a negative TST and one had a positive TST in the past (Table 1). The findings caused commotion among the personnel since a significant increase of TB infection among HCW was feared. It became apparent during this episode that personnel of the Safety, Health and Welfare Service performing the TST in this hospital was not optimally trained. This was explained by the dynamic composition of the nursing staff performing the TST which precluded maintaining adequate expertise.

--------------------

Our results are comparable with those of Nienhaus et al.3 who proposed to replace TST with IGRA for screening of HCW in low incidence countries. Albeit IGRA are more expensive than TST, this strategy was cost-effective since treatment and follow-up can be greatly reduced.4

In conclusion, the findings of this annual TB screening program show that IGRA provide different and more specific information than that of the TST regarding TB infection. It suggests that both overtreatment of subjects with a positive TST in the absence of recent infection and undertreatment of actually infected BCG vaccinated persons are realistic dangers when treatment policy is based only on TST results. This series shows that IGRA can represent a valuable tool in this setting and we recommend the implementation of IGRA for screening of HCW in low-endemic regions.
______________________________________
Steven F. T. Thijsen, MD, PhD
Department of Medical Microbiology
Diakonessenhuis
Utrecht, The Netherlands

Saskia V. van Rossum, MSc
Department of Infection Prevention
Hospital and Hygiene
Diakonessenhuis, The Netherlands

Sandra Arend, MD, PhD
Department of Infectious Diseases
Leiden University Medical Center
Leiden, The Netherlands

Ben Koster, MD
Municipal Health Authority (GG&GD)
Department of Tuberculosis Control
Utrecht, The Netherlands

Alexander M. Machiels, MD
Department of Safety, Health and Welfare Service,
Diakonessenhuis
Utrecht, The Netherlands

Ailko W.J. Bossink, MD, PhD
Department of Pulmonology and Tuberculosis
Diakonessenhuis, The Netherlands

You can bank on it

Vinton study into QFT and HCWs

Dr P Vinton et al (University of Melbourne, Department of Medicine and the Centre for Clinical Research Excellence in Infectious Diseases, the Royal Melbourne Hospital, Australia) studied the results of both the TST and QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube in 358 HCWs from 5 hospitals in Melbourne and concluded:
in a population of healthcare staff with a low prevalence of TB and a significant rate of BCG vaccination, a positive QFT-in tube test result was associated with the presence of known risk factors for TB exposure, whereas a positive TST result was more strongly associated with a prior history of BCG vaccination.
Importantly the study was recently published in the March 2009 edition of Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology

Agent Scully reports

Interferon Gamma Release Assays for Detection of Latent Tuberculosis Infection

AHC Newsletters - Apr. 01, 2009

Interferon Gamma Release Assays for Detection of Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Abstract & Commentary

By Mary Louise Scully MD

Dr. Scully is Director, Travel and Tropical Medicine Center, Sansum Clinic, Santa Barbara, CA.

Dr. Scully reports no financial relationships relevant to this field of study.

Synopsis: Interferon gamma assays now are commercially available for the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection and have an advantage over tuberculin skin tests in being better able to identify persons with true latent tuberculosis infections versus prior Bacille Calmette-Guéron (BCG) vaccination.

.........

The full spectrum of the usefulness of IGRAs will require longitudinal studies and further studies in select populations such as young children and immunosuppressed patients. However, the data are encouraging and support the use of IGRAs in patients previously immunized with BCG. In this scenario, a BCG-vaccinated patient with a positive TST (but no recent high-risk TB exposure) and a negative IGRA test would not require a treatment course for latent tuberculosis infection that otherwise might have been recommended prior to the advent of IGRAs.

MMWR: HIV, TB & IGRA

Interesting interpretation of new CDC guidelines for HIV.

................

Early Anti-HIV Therapy Shows Benefit in Opportunistic Infections

By Michael Smith, North American Correspondent, MedPage Today

Reviewed by Zalman S. Agus, MD; Emeritus Professor
University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine.


ATLANTA, March 25 -- For treatment-naive HIV patients with an opportunistic infection, the benefits of immediate antiretroviral therapy outweigh the risks, according to new guidelines from the CDC.

Evidence is mounting that for most such infections -- especially if there is no specific treatment -- early antiretroviral therapy will contribute to faster resolution, the agency said in an early release of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

The report contains revised guidelines -- developed with the NIH and the Infectious Diseases Society of America -- for prevention and treatment of opportunistic infections in adults and adolescents with HIV.

................

The guidelines note that all HIV patients should be tested for latent TB infection, either with the traditional tuberculin skin test or the new interferon-gamma release assay.

There is evidence, the guidelines say, that compared with the skin test the new test -- three are approved in the U.S. -- is more consistent and has higher specificity, is better correlated with surrogate measures of exposure to M. tuberculosis, and has less cross reactivity because of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination or other nontuberculous mycobacteria exposure.

Nevertheless, the skin test can be used where resources are limited, the guidelines say.

................

March 26, 2009

Yokohama - new pattern gives better grip

From Yokohama comes this guide on how to use QuantiFERON - I guess


Taylor Rules




David R. Henderson

When Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke proposed the $700 billion bailout last September, many mainstream economists who spoke out lined up in favor, although about as many economists were critical. Few--I'm one of the few--were dead-set against it.

Some of us who criticized the bailout were dismissed because we are not macroeconomists. (Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole: GDP, inflation, unemployment, etc.) That dismissal never made much sense because you don't have to be a macroeconomist to understand that the Henry Paulson plan was proposing central planning of the financial markets and, as the late Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig von Mises showed us, central planning doesn't work.

But now comes a book by an economist who criticizes the bailout and who cannot be dismissed on any of the standard grounds. That economist is John Taylor, and his book is Getting Off Track: How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged and Worsened the Financial Crisis.

Taylor, one of the leading New Keynesian economists in the U.S.--and, indeed, in the world--is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and an economics professor at Stanford University. He carries serious credentials as a practitioner of economic policy: From 2001 to 2005, he was Bush's Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs. Virtually all of his impressive academic papers have been in macroeconomics, many of them on monetary policy.

And how many economists besides Taylor can claim that a rule for conducting monetary policy has been named after them? Answer: none. The famous Taylor rule is one that a large percent of macroeconomists of various persuasions agree should guide a central bank's monetary policy, assuming that a central bank is a good idea. So when John Taylor speaks or writes, people should listen or read.

Taylor writes that the Federal Reserve Bank, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac caused the crisis, the Bush administration misdiagnosed the problem, and, because of the misdiagnosis, the bailout made the problem worse.

Throughout 2007 and 2008, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and others in policy-making positions assumed that the problem was that the financial system lacked liquidity, and virtually all their actions were calculated to inject more liquidity. But Taylor gives evidence, which he garnered with economist John Williams, that liquidity was not a problem. The problem, writes Taylor, was "counterparty risk." Taylor compares finance to the game of Hearts. In Hearts, you don't want to get stuck with the queen of spades. The queens of spades in finance, he writes, "were the securities with bad mortgages in them" and "people didn't know where they were." Increasing liquidity by increasing the money supply does nothing to solve that problem.

Taylor's evidence that the problem was risk, not liquidity, comes from his comparison of two interest-rate spreads. The Libor-OIS spread is the three-month London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) minus the three-month overnight index swap (OIS). The OIS measures the market's expectation of the federal funds rate over a three-month period. The size of the Libor-OIS spread, therefore, is due to things like risk and liquidity. But how to distinguish between the two? That's where Taylor brings in his second spread, the difference between the Libor and the interest rate on secured loans. Libor loans are unsecured. The size of this spread is due to risk, and the Libor-OIS spread shot up at the same time that the unsecured-secured spread shot up.

Many proponents of the bailout argued that the government's failure to bail out Lehman Brothers made the financial crisis worse. But Taylor, drawing on the well-known finding of financial economists that financial markets adjust within hours or minutes to new information, shows that the Libor-OIS spread did not widen much after the Lehman bankruptcy. Instead, the big widening occurred after Bernanke's and Paulson's Sept. 23 testimony spooked financial markets with their warnings of grim days ahead if the bailout were not passed. This is some of the key evidence that the bailout actually worsened the problem.

Taylor's views that the problem was diagnosed and that the bailout made the problem worse are persuasive. But I disagree with him when he says that the seeds of the housing bubble were in Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's too-loose monetary policy. To make this case, Taylor relies on the federal funds rate, the rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans and that the Fed reserve targets with its monetary policy. He gives zero data on the growth of the various monetary aggregates. But monetary economist Jeff Hummel and I have shown that after Y2K, the monetary aggregates during the early 2000s were growing modestly.

Routine use of QFT in Switzerland

Here we have an example of QuantiFERON being used to test migrants for both latent and active TB. Dr Jean-Pierre Zellweger (University of Lausanne) is mentioned in the study; he has had a long association with IGRA and QuantiFERON.

#########

Screening for latent tuberculosis infection among undocumented migrants in Swiss healthcare centres; a descriptive exploratory study

Patrick Bodenmann , Paul Vaucher , Hans Wolff , Bernard Favrat , Fanny de Tribolet , Eric Masserey and Jean-Pierre Zellweger

BMC Infectious Diseases 2009, 9:34doi:10.1186/1471-2334-9-34

Published: 24 March 2009
Abstract (provisional)

Background
Migration is one of the major causes of tuberculosis in developed countries. Undocumented patients are usually not screened at the border and are not covered by a health insurance increasing their risk of developing the disease unnoticed. Urban health centres could help identify this population at risk. The objective of this study is to assess the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and adherence to preventive treatment in a population of undocumented immigrant patients.

Methods
All consecutive undocumented patients that visited two urban healthcare centres for vulnerable populations in Lausanne, Switzerland for the first time were offered tuberculosis screening with an interferon-gamma assay. Preventive treatment was offered if indicated. Adherence to treatment was evaluated monthly over a nine month period.

Results
Of the 161 participants, 131 (81.4%) agreed to screening and 125 had complete examinations. Twenty-four of the 125 patients (19.2%; CI95% 12.7;27.2) had positive interferon-gamma assay results, two of which had active tuberculosis. Only five patients with LTBI completed full preventive treatments. Five others initiated the treatment but did not follow through.

Conclusion
Screening for tuberculosis infection in this hard-to-reach population is feasible in dedicated urban clinics, and the prevalence of LTBI is high in this vulnerable population. However, the low adherence to treatment is an important public health concern, and new strategies are needed to address this problem.

March 25, 2009

World TB Day - PBS

Thanks Jessica

Military madness - marking time?

Details of the latest military study into Quantiferon are as follows;

to assess the reproducibility of QFT-GIT results when the volume of the blood specimen used is both within- and out-of-range per the FDA approved package insert... specimen volumes to be used per test subject collected at a single point in time are 0.5ml, 0.8ml, 1.0ml, 1.0ml, 1.0ml, 1.2ml, and 1.5ml.

measure inter-assay agreement in QFT-GIT results when the test antigens are mixed with the whole blood specimens using two different mixing conditions:
a. Whole blood specimens shall be mixed with the antigens by shaking to the point at which the blood begins to froth - this procedure is recommended by the QFT-GIT manufacturer and has been FDA approved.

b. Whole blood specimens shall be mixed with the antigens by rolling on a mixing platform (concurrently rocks and rolls tubes to assure full surface coverage) - this procedure is more consistent with the way phlebotomists are taught to handle blood specimens.

March 24, 2009

The Austrian Study

Another study confirming that QFT is better able to predict progression to active TB even in immune compromised individuals (you have to wonder at the extent of delusion required for those who continue to use the inaccurate and outdated TST)

_______________________________________________


Source

Detection and prediction of active tuberculosis disease by a whole-blood interferon-gamma release assay in HIV-1-infected individuals.

Aichelburg MC, Rieger A, Breitenecker F, Pfistershammer K, Tittes J, Eltz S, Aichelburg AC, Stingl G, Makristathis A, Kohrgruber N.
Department of Dermatology, Division of Immunology, Allergy, and Infectious Diseases, Vienna General Hospital, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.

BACKGROUND: The sensitivity of whole-blood interferon-gamma release assays to detect or predict active tuberculosis in individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) has as yet not been determined. Methods. In this prospective, longitudinal, single-center study, 830 HIV-1-infected patients underwent testing with the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) assay. Clinical screening for active tuberculosis was performed at least every 3 months for a median follow-up time of 19 months.

RESULTS: At baseline, the QFT-GIT assay yielded positive or indeterminate results in 44 (5.3%) and 47 (5.7%) of the 830 patients, respectively. A positive QFT-GIT assay result occurred at significantly higher frequencies among black individuals than among white individuals (odds ratio, 4.84; 95% confidence interval, 2.25-9.97; P< .001), among patients from Africa than among patients from Austria (odds ratio, 6.57; 95% confidence interval, 2.99-14.25; P< .001), and among patients from high-prevalence countries than among patients from low-prevalence countries (odds ratio, 5.86; 95% confidence interval, 2.41-13.44; P< .001). In patients with indeterminate QFT-GIT assay results, both median actual and nadir CD4(+) T cell counts were significantly lower than in patients with interpretable QFT-GIT assay results (P< .001). At the time of baseline QFT-GIT screening, active tuberculosis was found in 7 (15.9%) of 44 individuals with a positive result and in 1 (0.1%) of 739 patients with a negative result. During the follow-up period, however, progression to active tuberculosis occurred exclusively in patients with a positive QFT-GIT assay result, at a rate of 8.1% (3 of 37 patients; P< .001). Collectively, the sensitivity of the QFT-GIT assay for active tuberculosis was 90.9% (95% confidence interval, 62.3%-98.4%).

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the QFT-GIT assay may be a sensitive tool for the detection and prediction of active tuberculosis in HIV-1-infected individuals.

IGRA in HIV+ patients

USEFULNESS OF INTERFERON-GAMMA RELEASE ASSAYS IN THE DIAGNOSIS OF TUBERCULOSIS INFECTION IN HIV-INFECTED PATIENTS IN BULGARIA

R. Markova1, Y. Todorova1, R. Drenska1, I. Elenkov2, M. Yankova2, D. Stefanova3
National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Department of Immunology and Allergology, Sofia, Bulgaria1
Infectious Diseases Hospital “Prof. Ivan Kirov”, AIDS Clinic, Sofia, Bulgaria2
University Hospital for Lung Diseases “St. Sofia”, TB Clinic, Sofia, Bulgaria3
______________________________________________________________________

ABSTRACT
We aimed to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating the result from an IFN-gamma release assay (IGRA) in the algorithm for initial diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) in prospectively enrolled HIV-infected subjects. Ninety HIV-infected subjects with clinical and/or radiological features consistent with a possible diagnosis of active-TB were tested with QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) and T-SPOT.TB™ (SPOT). All information, including IGRA results, was available to clinicians for making their diagnosis. Those diagnosed with TB were given anti-TB treatment and samples were collected for microbiological culture.

Overall, 35/90 patients were QFT positive and 30/90 by SPOT. QFT was indeterminate for 5/90 subjects (5.5%) and SPOT for 11/90 (12.2%; p=0.0313). Active-TB was microbiologically confirmed in 13 subjects and twelve (92%) were positive by QFT and one was negative. For SPOT, 8/12 (62%; p=0.125) were positive, one- negative, and 4 were indeterminate. Of the 77 HIV-positive subjects without microbiologically confirmed active-TB, 23 (30%) were positive, 49 (64%) negative, and 5 (6%) indeterminate by QFT, compared with 22 (29%), 48 (62%) and 7 (9%) by SPOT. Those IGRA positive, and two who were IGRA indeterminate, had a final presumptive diagnosis of active-TB, based upon initial clinical symptoms and improvement with anti-TB treatment. All IGRA negative subjects had a diagnosis other than tuberculosis and none have since developed active TB over a period of more than 12 month.

In conclusion, both IGRAs provided useful additional information for assisting the diagnosis and early treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in immunocompromised HIV/AIDS patients with negative smear microscopy. A positive IGRA result was a significant factor in making initial diagnoses of TB, diagnoses that were later supported by clinical outcome following anti-TB therapy, and diagnoses other than TB in those IGRA negative. The QFT and SPOT tests had similar high sensitivity, with QFT having fewer indeterminate results, in our HIV-infected immunocompromised population

Quest labs - update #6

Thanks to doc-gt we now have a more complete picture from previous updates;

Sacramento & San Jose, California; Denver, Colorado ; Wallingford, Connecticut; Wood Dale, Illinois; Indianapolis, Indiana; Lenexa, Kansas; Cambridge, Massachusetts; Maryland Heights, Missouri; Dayton, Ohio; Portland, Oregon; Horsham & Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Houston & Irving, Texas; Chantilly, Virginia; Seattle, Washington

Depending on how you count them there could be 17 or 19 regional labs processing QFT; Wallingford, Connecticut and Cambridge, Massachusetts are listed twice as Quest regional labs yet have different codes indicating possible multiple locations.

Various codes indicate that whilst some labs are able to fully process QFT-GIT others only incubate before transporting to a processing lab whilst others act only as collection points.

This would fit in with earlier advice that distance was a major factor with labs, an issue that QFT-GIT was able to resolve.

As the list of labs and codes appear to be under revision it would appear that the lab operators are evaluating the size and logistics of their market and are responding accordingly.

Latent TB diagnosis is a new field for labs and in low TB areas there may be few if any samples to process; as the CDC/TBESC found in their Laboratory Surveys Report
The scarcity of (public health) laboratories offering mycobacteriological services may be a result of a low demand for these services in a low-TB incidence area. Laboratorians then have few opportunities to build their expertise in mycobacterial services, which adversely affect the timeliness and accuracy of TB diagnosis and drug susceptibility testing. Data on public health reporting of results, especially from the first survey, suggest a high degree of uncertainty on this matter.

March 23, 2009

LTBI treatment - misdiagnosis and side effects make for bad medicine

Canada's McGill University is talking up a proposed new study into LTBI treatment;
Nearly 6,000 people with latent (inactive) tuberculosis will be enrolled in five cities across Canada as well as in the West African countries of Benin and Guinee, in Brazil, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia.

Half will receive the current regimen used to try to cure latent TB infection, once-a-day treatment with the drug isoniazid (called INH for short) for nine months. The other half will receive the drug rifampin (also known as rifampicin) for four months.

Both groups will be followed for 28 months from recruitment to see how many go on to develop active TB - which should tell if rifampin is as efficacious as isoniazid. Menzies says it will take about seven years to arrive at the answer of the nearly $5-million study.
According to the article rifampin is less harmful to the liver (less than 1% compared to 3.8% of people taking isoniazid) but interacts badly with a large number of other medications, including beta blockers, opiod pain killers and birth control pills.

Both Dr. Michael Gardam, director of the tuberculosis clinic at Toronto Western Hospital and Dr. Dick Menzies, McGill University' agree that gaining patient confidence is critical;
Only a small percentage of people who have latent TB - somewhere between five to 10 per cent - will go on to develop active disease. Given that fact, and the fact that people who have latent TB don't feel sick, telling people they should take a drug that might destroy their liver can be a "a hard sell," Gardam says.

Menzies agrees: "Very hard to sell to patients - and even to doctors. A lot of doctors won't give this stuff."
The crux of the problem is that they are still using a 100 year old test to diagnose latent TB, a test with well known, recorded and proven record of misdiagnosis, something that Dick Menzies (along with Drs Madhukar Pai and George Comstock) has already stated;
The tuberculin skin test is 1 of the few tests that has been in use for nearly 100 years in clinical medicine (1). Therefore, it is not surprising that the test has important limitations. The tuberculin skin test uses a relatively crude mix of antigens from Mycobacterium tuberculosis. As a result, falsepositive reactions can occur because of previous bacille Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination or sensitization to nontuberculous mycobacteria. False-negative results on tuberculin skin tests can occur because of severe illness, including active tuberculosis (TB), or immune suppression, often due to HIV infection. Initial testing can affect results of subsequent tests because of anamnestic recall of immunity (the booster effect). Errors in administration or reading can lead to incorrect results. The variability of the tuberculin skin test can be minimal with well-trained personnel using meticulous techniques (2–8), although such personnel are not always available. Interpretation of test results requires a thorough understanding of the test.

Greater accuracy and predictability can be obtained by using a laboratory based blood test, such as QuantiFERON;
Results suggest QFT screening determines more accurately than TST the presence of LTBI with at least equivalent sensitivity for predicting progression to TB. The high rate of progression to active TB of those QFT positive (14.6%), far greater than the 2.3% found for those TST positive, has significant health and economic implications for enhanced TB control.
Before Canada embarks on such a study it is important that they clarify just how they will diagnose LTBI; if they are to use only the TST there exists a potential for distortion through misdiagnosis which could compromise confidence in any outcome.

March 21, 2009

Plain speaking



So says the promotional blurb,
Wichita, not your average college town...

...As the medical, communication, cultural, financial, and entertainment hub of Kansas, Wichita can make living in a run-of-the-mill college town seem, well ... a little unfulfilling.
Nominated by Forbes Magazine as "Number One Place to Live the Good Life Cheaply" and Money Magazine "Top 10 Best Big Cities" Wichita also manages to attract some 1,745 foreign students, all of whom must be tested by Quantiferon;
Starting in March 2009, Student Health Services will require those who are considered high-risk for tuberculosis, including all international students, to be tested with a blood test called Quantiferon

March 20, 2009

Get-QuantiFERON update




From 98 labs to 100 - Get-QFT cracks the ton.

Health Network Laboratories – Turnersville NJ
Health Network Laboratories – Allentown PA



Japan - labs handling QFT update

Previously we counted 159 labs in Japan offering to test QuantiFERON, another 6 makes that 165.

March 14, 2009

Greenspan looks forward

Writing in the WSJ former Federal Reserve chairman Mr Alan Greenspan argues that it wasnt the Fed's interest rate policies that overly stimulated asset markets it was the massive shift by centrally controlled governments to market economies;
the presumptive cause of the world-wide decline in long-term rates was the tectonic shift in the early 1990s by much of the developing world from heavy emphasis on central planning to increasingly dynamic, export-led market competition.
Having made that point he then argues that the current situation may be beyond adjustments to monetary policy
if it is monetary policy that is at fault, then that can be corrected in the future, at least in principle. If, however, we are dealing with global forces beyond the control of domestic monetary policy makers, as I strongly suspect is the case, then we are facing a broader issue.
Those global forces being
Global market competition and integration in goods, services and finance
Governments and their central bankers need to look beyond "stimulus packages" and quick fix populist measures like infrastructure spending and executive salary caps.

Alan Greenspan again
If we are to retain a dynamic world economy capable of producing prosperity and future sustainable growth, we cannot rely on governments to intermediate saving and investment flows. Our challenge in the months ahead will be to install a regulatory regime that will ensure responsible risk management on the part of financial institutions, while encouraging them to continue taking the risks necessary and inherent in any successful market economy.

March 12, 2009

Buying time

Morgan Stanley update their economic forecast;

...In our baseline outlook, we still expect that the recession will end late in 2009, followed by a moderate recovery. Initiatives to fix the financial system, coupled with aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus, remain the key factors promoting the upturn.

...Buying time makes sense as Betsy Graseck, our large-cap bank analyst, believes that the earnings power of the core banking business is sufficient for banks to earn their way out of an $800 billion (pretax, pre-provision, pre-mark-to-market) problem in two to three years. Despite current concerns, the industry has already made good progress on that front.

QuantiFERON to Houston..

The first Quantiferon symposium for 2009 was held at the Texas Medical Center, Houston, USA

Source

Extracts from the presentations (click on images for FULL SIZE);



QFT Implementation in San Francisco
Masae Kawamura, MD, Director/TB Controller,
San Francisco TB Control Section Department of Public Health, CA


Laboratory Aspects of the QuantiFERON (QFT) Interferon Gamma Release Assays
Edward Graviss, PhD, MPH, Director, Molecular Tuberculosis Laboratory, TMHRI Houston, TX
-----------------------------------



Implementing Blood Assay TB Testing
Jackie Kinard RN, APN, United HealthCare, Las Vegas, NV
-----------------------------------





Tuberculosis Control: Process and Implementation
Elizabeth Lawhorn, MSN, RN ExxonMobil Corporation
------------------------------------





TB Surveillance utilizing QuantiFERON ® -TB Gold
Is it measuring up?
Dr. David Marder, MD, MPH
Medical Director of University Health Service
University of Illinois Medical Center Chicago
-----------------------------------

March 10, 2009

Miami University (Ohio) moves forward

From their 2008/2009 Student handbook;
All international students must report to the Student Health Service upon arrival on campus. All international students from high-risk countries, as determined from Center for Disease Control data, must provide evidence of freedom from tuberculosis. A Quantiferon blood test to check for Tuberculosis will be done at the Student Health Service. All students with a positive test must have a chest x-ray annually for five years. This policy shall not apply to students registered and taking courses solely at the regional campuses.

Warren Buffett to CNBC: Economy Has "Fallen Off a Cliff"

Emailer asks, "Will everything be all right?" Buffett's strong answer: Yes, everything will be all right. We have a free-market system that unleashes human potential and we are "far from done." "The machine gets gummed up from time to time" but we go forward.


Posted By: Alex Crippen
Topics:Warren Buffett
Companies:American Express Co | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Warren Buffett tells CNBC's Becky Quick the U.S. economy has "fallen off a cliff."

During a three-hour appearance on Squawk Box this morning (Monday), Buffett said economic developments have been very "close to the worst case" that he had imagined, although conditions would be far worse if the Federal Reserve hadn't stepped in last September.

Other highlights:

  • The economy "can't turn around on a dime" and a turnaround "won't happen fast."
  • Predicts unemployment rate in U.S. will go well above its current levels before the downturn ends
  • But, five years from now, the economy will be running fine. The strength of the American system will pull it through, just as it has many times in the past.
  • Democrats and Republicans should work together and not try to take advantage of the economic situation to achieve partisan goals.
  • Inflation has the "potential" to be worse than the 1970s.
  • Most banks are in "pretty good shape" and can "earn their way out" of the current problems given the low cost of funds. Banks, however, "need to get back to banking."
  • Extremely important that the government make clear depositors won't lose their money if banks fail. Obama needs to make a "clear statement" in support of the banking system. (Slideshow: World's Safest Banks)
  • Berkshire is restricted from buying more American Express [AXP 10.64 0.38 (+3.7%) ] stock, but that doesn't mean it is not a "hell of a buy" at $10 a share.
  • Wishes he had written the New York Times "Buy American" piece a few months later, but stands by the basic argument that you'll do better over a ten-year period with stocks that you will with Treasuries. He said in the article he wasn't calling the bottom of the stock market, and he still isn't.
  • Buffett says derivatives are not "evil" and to be avoided at all costs, but they are "dangerous" and should be used very carefully. He still expects to make money on the long-term "put option" equity derivative contracts Berkshire has written.
  • Housing market could work through, or "sop up," its excess supply in as little as three years if new construction is reduced to a level below natural population growth
  • The U.S. economy was not a "house of cards" over the past ten years, but mistakes were made when it came to borrowing money.
  • Mark-to-market accounting should be retained, but regulators shouldn't use it so much to require insitutions to increase their reserves.
  • "Probably the uptick rule" is a good idea.
  • Mistake to "demonize" corporate executives for using private jets. Having a jet has helped Berkshire make deals in the past.
  • Praises Ben Bernanke's leadership as Federal Reserve Chairman

March 9, 2009

Japan - labs handling QFT

From the website of the distributor, some 159 labs listed as using QuantiFERON TB-2G spread out in the areas of Hokkaido, Iwate, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata, Fukushima, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Yamanashi, Niigata, Nagano Prefecture, Toyama, Ishikawa, Fukui, Aichi, Gifu, Shizuoka, Mie, Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto, Shiga, Nara, Wakayama, Tottori Prefecture, Shimane Prefecture, Okayama, Hiroshima Prefecture, Yamaguchi Prefecture, Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime, Kochi, Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, Miyazaki, Kagoshima & Okinawa.

Updated CDC guidelines

The latest news from the CDC comes via the March 2009 edition of Pediatric Annals;

The CDC is currently working on updated guidelines for the use of interferon-gamma release assays for diagnosing TB infection in the United States. Research on this topic is ongoing to continue informing recommendations on the national level.

– Kevin Fenton, MD, PhD

CDC, Atlanta

March 8, 2009

Bears getting drowsy?

Market bears Morgan Stanley cautiously look at recent indicators;
As confirmed bears on the economy, we’re always looking out for contrary indicators, so we are paying close attention to the manufacturing and other economic indicators that turned less negative in the past couple of months. While still deeply in recessionary territory, the ISM manufacturing index has turned up almost 3 points from a near 30-year low in December, the nonmanufacturing composite advanced more than 5 points in January over November’s trough, and our own Business Conditions Index rose by ten points in February from the depths of last autumn. The composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI) has risen two months in a row. Could those straws in the wind mean that an inflection point is here?

In our view, these data do suggest that the intensity of the declines is beginning to fade, and with fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, recovery is likely to emerge by year-end. But the improvement in the second derivative is coming off the deepest recession in 60 years, and investors should be wary of the volatility in these data, especially following the breathtaking plunge of the past few months. With needed policy actions yet to be implemented and the financial and economic headwinds still strong, we believe the trough of this downturn is still several months off.

Our not so private Idaho

Idaho Department of Health and Welfare excitedly introduce Quantiferon in their January 2009 newsletter;

An Alternative to TB Skin Testing is Now Available!

The Idaho public health laboratory is now offering the QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube test (QFT-GIT), a blood test that can aid in diagnosing Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) infection, including latent infection and active disease.

..QFT-GIT can be used in all settings in which the skin test is currently used, including contact investigations, evaluation of recent immigrants who have had BCG vaccination, and TB screening of health care workers and others undergoing serial evaluation for M. tuberculosis. For providers, using QFT-GIT may decrease confusion when persons known to have been vaccinated with BCG are to be tested.

During the validation process Idaho had previously noted yet another advantage to using QFT-GIT;
Because QFT-G-IT does not require a second visit to complete, test results will likely be available from a greater percentage of contacts than would be available using the TST

Minnesota update

Further details from previous posting;

Minnesota Rule 4655.3000

Source

All paid and unpaid HCWs (as defined in the "CDC Guidelines") must receive baseline TB screening. This screening must include a written assessment of the HCW’s risk factors for TB and any current TB symptoms ,and a two-step tuberculin skin test (TST) or single interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) for M. tuberculosis (e.g., QuantiFERON ® TB Gold or Gold-InTube, T-SPOT ® .TB)

All paid and unpaid HCWs (as defined in the "CDC Guidelines") must receive serial TB screening based on the facility’s risk level: (1) low risk - not needed; (2) medium risk - yearly; (3) potential ongoing transmission – consult the Minnesota Department of Health’s TB Prevention and Control Program at 651-201-5414.


Minnesota Rule 4655.4700

All residents must receive baseline TB screening within 72 hours of admission or within 3 months prior to admission. TB screening must include a written assessment of the resident’s risk factors for TB and any current TB symptoms,and a two-step TST or a single interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) for M. tuberculosis (e.g., QuantiFERON ® TB Gold or TB-Gold InTube, T-SPOT ® .TB)

This is a big change from the original laws here and here which clearly state that the TB skin test shall be used.

March 7, 2009

Looking forwards with IGRA

At some point in the future IGRA could replace risk analysis.

#####

Interpretation of a serial Mantoux test taking into account the annual risk of tuberculous infection.

Source

del Río Camacho G, Perea-Milla E, Romero González J, Pérez Frías J.
Paediatrics Department, Costa del Sol Hospital, Marbella, Spain. vevirio@hotmail.com

BACKGROUND: Interpretation of tuberculin tests (TSTs) can be difficult. However, it is even more difficult to classify an individual as infected or non-infected if he or she has undergone a prior TST, as the difference between the booster effect and true conversion is not always clear.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the size of the induration that is indicative of true infection after a second Mantoux test, based on the fact that the annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARTI) is equivalent, regardless of whether it is calculated directly or indirectly.

METHOD: We performed two TSTs in the same population (aged 6 years at the first examination) with a 1-year interval. We calculated the prevalence of infection the first year (1.16%, 95%CI 0.67-1.65) and the ARTI using the indirect method (0.18%, 95%CI 0.00-0.37). For the second year, we considered different induration sizes and finally accepted a diameter of >10 mm as the criterion according to which the ARTI, calculated directly, corresponded to the value of the previous year (0.18%).

CONCLUSION: Although they served as an aid in the interpretation of the TST, calculations of this type will probably be unnecessary in the future, when in vitro diagnostic tests for tuberculosis are made available in every health centre, thus enabling the classification of those individuals with indurations of intermediate size in the TST.

March 6, 2009

Messing about with boats

Some pictures of the 90' BMW Oracle high-tech trimaran - a big change from taking a punt with Ratty - full album here














March 5, 2009

QuantiFERON busts another TST myth

This report from Boston clearly demonstrates that by only using QuantiFERON to confirm a TST+ is to place too much reliance on the TST as the primary diagnostic.

It also demonstrates that QuantiFERON is effective in dealing with patients from a high incidence country, in this case India.

#######


Man presents with 10-day history of floaters, blurry vision in left eye

By Namrata Nandakumar, MD; Sarkis H. Soukiasian, MD

A 33-year-old man of Indian origin presented with a 10-day history of increased floaters and blurry vision in his left eye. He denied photopsias, eye redness or pain.

The patient’s ocular history included occasional dry eye. His medical history was unremarkable, and he was not on any medications. A thorough review of systems was negative.

Examination

On exam, the patient’s best corrected visual acuity was 20/15 in the right eye and 20/30 in the left eye with no improvement with manifest refraction. His IOP was 16 mm Hg in the right eye and 17 mm Hg in the left eye. Extraocular muscles were full in both eyes, and pupils were symmetric and reactive with no relative afferent pupillary defect.

The right eye anterior segment exam was unremarkable. The left eye slit lamp exam was notable for rare vitreal cells and debris. Fundus examination of the right eye was normal. The left eye showed a macular star of lipid exudates, an elevated yellowish lesion near the superotemporal aspect of the optic nerve, and peripapillary, subretinal and nerve fiber layer hemorrhages (Figure 1). Optical coherence tomography of the macula showed no fluid (Figure 2). Fluorescein angiography showed some leakage around the optic nerve in the left eye (Figure 3).

A diagnosis of neuroretinitis was made. The differential diagnosis of neuroretinitis includes infectious causes such as syphilis, toxoplasmosis, hepatitis B, Lyme, and cat scratch disease; non-infectious causes sarcoidosis and multiple sclerosis; and idiopathic causes.

An extensive workup, including serum angiotensin converting enzyme, lysozyme, c-reactive protein, liver function tests, FTA-ABS, Lyme antibodies, toxoplasma and Bartonella titers, was performed and was within normal limits. A chest X-ray showed old healed granulomatous disease in the right hilar lymph nodes. A chest CT showed peripheral punctate calcified granulomas and a single small calcification anterior to the heart behind the sternum, consistent with inactive granulomatous disease. A QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay was performed and was positive.

QuantiFERON-TB Gold is a test approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for use as an aid in diagnosing latent and active mycobacterium tuberculosis. Heparinized whole blood is incubated with synthetic peptides of ESAT-6 and CPF-10 antigens, and the concentration of interferon gamma is determined via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The test is comparable to the tuberculin skin test and can be used in patients who have been vaccinated with Bacille Calmette-Guérin.

Upon further questioning, we found the patient had emigrated from Southern India to the United States 8 years prior. There was neither a history nor known exposure to tuberculosis. His last PPD test was 1 year prior and was negative. His last visit to India was 2 months prior. He had no symptoms of fever, chills, cough, malaise, anorexia or fatigue.

Given the patient’s history and recent positive QuantiFERON-TB Gold, tuberculous neuroretinitis was high on our differential. Ocular tuberculosis can present in a number of diverse clinical scenarios, including anterior uveitis, posterior uveitis, panuveitis, retinitis, retinal vasculitis, optic atrophy and neuroretinitis. The diagnosis is often presumptive, as it is difficult to obtain tissue or fluid to demonstrate tubercle bacilli.

Our patient was started on a standard course of antitubercular treatment. A dramatic improvement in visual acuity and neuroretinitis was noted in a 3-month period. We diagnosed the patient with presumptive tuberculous neuroretinitis.

March 4, 2009

A super market of hype

Whilst pundits from both sides hurl concepts at each other the reality is that the market is alive and well and is not at all impressed by the govts actions;

Ted Weisman*
Treasuries were pounded by an unprecedented flood of $94 billion in coupon supply over the past week, with the belly of the curve taking heavy losses, even as economic data remained uniformly abysmal, the stock market fell to new lows, and other risk markets mostly also deteriorated to varying extents, with a severe correction in commercial real estate particularly disturbing. Investors in risk markets appear to have largely lost faith in the government’s ability to revive the economy or financial system, while investors in Treasuries expect the government will continue to spend ever increasing amounts of money trying to do so to little effect, keeping issuance at its record, shattering recent rates. Certainly nothing happened over the past week to raise investors’ confidence in government policy. We’ve still heard nothing more about the bad bank plan, massive tax increases including on dividends and capital gains were announced in the middle of an equity market severe correction and what will likely end up being the worst recession since the 1930s, the new ‘Capital Assistance Program’ to buy convertible preferred stock in banks had punitive terms that made it unlikely any company would want to participate that wasn’t forced to as a result of failing its stress test, the latest effort to support Citigroup was terribly received by the market, and there’s still no TALF, so the February timeline for implementing this program announced months ago has now been missed...(cont'd)
*Ted Wieseman is a Morgan Stanley Vice President and an economist focusing on US fixed income markets. Ted works with Chief US Fixed Income Economist David Greenlaw on Federal Reserve and US Treasury analysis and economic data forecasting and analysis, supporting the firm's Treasury, agency, and derivatives sales, and trading operations. Before joining Morgan Stanley in 1998, Ted worked for three years at Citibank, primarily focusing on foreign exchange economics.

Ted holds an M.A. in economics from New York University and a B.A. in economics with a minor in mathematics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He also did graduate work in economics at Yale University.

March 3, 2009

ex Fed CEO says "Stop the Bailouts"

Source NYT

William Poole*
THE fundamental causes of this recession, unique in the experience of the United States, were mortgage defaults and the consequent insolvency of major financial firms. These insolvencies, and especially fear of them, damaged normal credit mechanisms.

The self-correcting nature of markets will ultimately prevail. We should not underestimate the power of monetary policy; with the sharp increase in the nation’s money stock starting in September, monetary policy is now extraordinarily expansionary. I believe, though without great confidence, that the recession will end in the second half of this year.
Federal policy is damaging the economy’s prospects. It fails to provide the needed tax incentives for investment in factories and equipment, incentives that were central to efforts to revive the economy during the Kennedy-Johnson era and under Ronald Reagan. But government spending can’t lead the way to sustained recovery, because its stimulating effect will be offset by anticipated higher taxes and the need to finance the deficit.

Heavy-handed federal intervention into the management of companies from banks to auto makers will also delay recovery. And misguided efforts to help distressed homeowners by permitting courts to rewrite the terms of mortgages will cause banks to limit mortgage lending, which will prevent housing from contributing to the recovery.

The unrelenting anger across the country over bailouts of corporations and households that made unwise and even irresponsible financial decisions is influencing federal policy. Punitive measures, like forcing companies receiving federal dollars to cancel employee events, will increase uncertainty over where the government will strike next in its effort to deflect public outrage. Instead of more bailouts, we need a clear and consistent path to fundamental reform of our financial system.

*William Poole is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and the president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 1998 to 2008


By saying Hey, Economists! Money and Interest Are Different Things Robert Murphy comes to the same point from a different angle;
Interest rates are prices, and as such they convey real information about scarcity in the world. People talk of financial affairs spreading into the "real economy," as if the allocation of capital is some minor detail. On the contrary, the capital markets — guided by interest rates — are the single most important "governor" of the "real" market economy over time.

By flooding the credit markets with money created out of thin air, the central banks of the world are interfering with humans' attempts to communicate with each other after the housing bubble popped. It would be as if the governments used military aircraft to jam the radios of rescue workers in a region hit by an earthquake.

The politicians and bureaucrats talk as if the members of the private sector are aloof during the crisis. On the contrary, people the world over are concentrating on their finances more than ever. But the governments of the world keep drowning out the signals people are trying to send to each other.

Money and interest are distinct things. There are times when the "right" market response is an increase in the supply of money and an increase in interest rates. Because modern central banks typically inject new money only by lowering interest rates, they make financial panics much worse.
Professor George Reisman is also painfully clear on the effects of stimulus packages;
Despite the fact that what the economic system needs for recovery is saving and the accumulation of new capital, to replace as far as possible the capital that has been lost, the effect of stimulus packages is further to reduce the supply of capital, and thus to worsen the recession or depression.

Get-QuantiFERON lab update

Recent changes to the many US and Canadian institutions who have agreed to provide QFT testing services to outside physicians and laboratories.

Additions;
  • Community Regional Medical Centers; Fresno Community Hospital California
  • Idaho Bureau of Laboratories
  • St. John's Hospital, Springfield, Illinois
  • Transplant laboratories; University of Miami
  • West Suburban Center for Arthritis, Wisconsin

Deletions;
  • El Paso County Health Department
  • Sunrise Medical Lab, Hauppauge, New York

Total labs now 98

March 2, 2009

OHS, Personnel Today & QuantiFERON


A bit about the magazine Personnel Today;

Top Ten Facts
  1. Personnel Today was first published in 1988.
  2. Personnel Today is the only weekly magazine for the human resources market.
  3. Personnel Today reaches 47,655 readers each week.
  4. Personnel Today gives practical business information, features and benchmarks in an accessible format.
  5. Personnel Today is recognised at the highest levels of government and industry.
  6. Ptod.com has the latest jobs in the HR industry.
  7. Ptod.com offers up to the minute HR news.
  8. Ptod.com offers careers advice and a comprehensive directory of suppliers of HR products and services.
Both Personnel Today and Occupational Health are published by the Reed Information Group, UK and both magazines have published an article dealing with immunisation and HCWs including TB

Once a policy has been accepted then thought can be given to a protocol that will address the issues of delivery of the focus of that policy: the what, when, where, by whom, and how often, and whether any post-immunisation biological monitoring or special surveillance processes are needed (serology). For example, in March 2007, the Department of Health published a document1 making it compulsory for NHS employers' to screen all new healthcare workers for Tuberculosis (TB) and the blood-borne viruses hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and HIV.

...Any nurse practitioner involved in the collection of biological monitoring samples must be aware of, and if necessary be reminded of, the need for 'universal (standard) precautions'9 when collecting samples or handling vaccines, especially live vaccines - for example, Yellow Fever.

Recently, the recommendations for screening for TB have changed from using the Heaf test to using the Mantoux test.3 However, the Mantoux test in the OH setting is very time consuming as it requires the employee to attend two appointments - one for the administration of the test, and one for the reading of the skin reaction 48 to 72 hours later,6 and there is a very real issue of patient non-compliance in attending the second appointment.

To address this, several employers and universities are now using either the T-spot7 or the Quantiferon TB Gold8 blood tests. These new blood tests are relatively expensive in comparison to the Mantoux test. However, apart from being able to identify latent as well as active TB, they save money by reducing the overall number of OH appointments needed, and by reducing the amount of time employees are out of the workplace.

These tests also have the added advantage that, by virtue of being a blood test, once the blood is taken you have ensured 100% compliance. Furthermore, they do not rely on the subjective reading of a skin reaction.

ASIC

ASIC want to tighten up on internet forums that discuss shares
Internet discussion sites (IDSs) are internet websites that provide a place for people who are not financial services professionals to share information, recommendations and opinions about financial products such as shares.

Under the current law, the activities of IDS operators and users may constitute the provision of financial services, for which an Australian Financial Services licence (AFSL) is required. ASIC proposes to update its policy to give specific guidance on which IDSs are likely to need an AFSL. ASIC does not propose to grant IDS operators relief from the financial services licensing and disclosure regimes, meaning operators will need to hold an AFSL unless a pre-existing exemption applies to them.

Another waste of taxpayers money

March 1, 2009

Keynes

Much has been made of the "death of the free market" and subsequent resurrection of economists such as Keynes and Tobin, from Bloomberg
After a three-decade run, the free-market philosophies of Friedman that shaped U.S. policy are being eclipsed by the pro- government ideas of Tobin, the late Yale economist and Nobel laureate who brought John Maynard Keynes into the modern era.

Keynes was a prolific writer (so prolific that some find that he agreed with everyone) therefore it is useful to look at the 1936 The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money and in particular the German preface;
the theory of output as a whole, which is what the following book purports to provide, is much more easily adapted to the conditions of a totalitarian state, than is the theory of the production and distribution of a given output produced under conditions of free competition and a large measure of laissez-faire.

Buffett surfs tsunami

From his 2009 letter to shareholders
..We're certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond -- but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall,"
Buffett warns of financial engineers, planners and the like
Investors should be skeptical of history-based models. Constructed by a nerdy-sounding priesthood using esoteric terms such as beta, gamma, sigma and the like, these models tend to look impressive. Too often, though, investors forget to examine the assumptions behind the symbols. Our advice: Beware of geeks bearing formulas.

Says Mark Sellers, managing partner of hedge fund Sellers Capital LLC
"He dove in too fast and probably wishes he had waited a few months...He hoarded cash for years, waiting, waiting, and then used a lot of it very quickly. No one, not even Buffett, can call the bottom."

Buffett agrees
During 2008 I did some dumb things in investments...I made some errors of omission, sucking my thumb when new facts came in that should have caused me to re-examine my thinking and promptly take action.

Jim Cramer from TheStreet.com writes
" I'm struggling this morning with some of the things that Warren Buffett is doing with his cash these days. I am struggling because he is selling America, selling Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble, selling ConocoPhillips and selling U.S. Bancorp.

What's more American than these stocks? These are not small trimmings. He sold more than half of his 52 million shares of Johnson & Johnson and he sold it at a 20-year low relative to its yield. That doesn't sound like "Buy America." That sounds like "Sell America." Yet, on Oct. 16, 2008, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 9000 and the S&P 500 at 950, Buffett penned a now-famous op-ed submission to The New York Times saying it was time to buy America. Those who bought America that day are feeling ... well, downright un-American. Or at least they're feeling poorer...

Alex Crippen disagrees with Jim Cramer
"Buffett was clear in his Times piece that he was buying U.S. stocks for his personal account. For himself, and for many investors, he saw cheap equities as the best way to put cash to work.

But Berkshire has other opportunities to make money that simply aren't available to everyone else. Most notably it can become a lender of last resort to solid companies going through a difficult time, and it can collect a very hefty interest rate for those loans.

Last fall, Buffett wasn't "buying American" for Berkshire, but he was "loaning American." A total of eight billion dollars went to General Electric and Goldman Sachs. Those loans pay 10 percent a year, guaranteed. The major risk is a collapse of these enormous icons of American business, a risk small enough for Buffett to accept.

And those billions of dollars of loans may very well have come from stock sales. After all, Buffett always wants to have a base level of cash on hand and resists borrowing money to finance investments.

Even if Buffett thought Johnson & Johnson would ultimately generate a solid return, it seems unlikely to expect that return would be 10 percent a year.

Buffett is not just looking for good investments for Berkshire, he's looking for the best investments he can find, that carry as little risk as possible.

Loaning billions to GE and Goldman at 10 percent over a few years could easily be a better use of that money than letting it ride in the stock market. (It does imply that he saw the stocks he sold as less likely to move higher than other equities in the portfolio.)
Indeed Buffett confirms that he sold America to buy America;
we made purchases totaling $14.5 billion in fixed-income securities issued by Wrigley, Goldman Sachs and General Electric. We very much like these commitments, which carry high current yields that, in themselves, make the investments more than satisfactory. But in each of these three purchases, we also acquired a substantial equity participation as a bonus. To fund these large purchases, I had to
sell portions of some holdings that I would have preferred to keep (primarily Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble and ConocoPhillips)
This is in keeping with his strategy to sell when a better deal comes along