August 31, 2009

Lest we forget

As the eulogies and farewells for the late Senator Edward Kennedy (a 'kind and gentle hero') swell to a tsunami-like proportion it is worth reflecting on the deaths of those that go unreported and unmourned by politicians, reporters, or the general public. Father Tom Euteneuer, writing for the Catholic Exchange says
Senator Kennedy needs to be sent to the afterlife with a private, family-only funeral and the prayers of the Church for the salvation of his immortal soul. He will not be missed by the unborn who he betrayed time and time again, nor by the rest of us who are laboring to undo the scandalous example of Catholicism that he gave to three generations of Americans.

Amongst the many scandals was the manner in which Kennedy treated the death of Mary Jo Kopechne

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August 29, 2009

When words fail you

Desperate to impress but finding it hard to put it together? No probs, what you need is a flow chart - who knows you might even get a recording deal that will put you into mega-stardom (if there is such a word)

Source


Incredibly EMI Music Publishing Limited have threatened a lawsuit and had the video removed from Youtube. Dont know what all the fuss is about;

Cracks in the porcelain

John Lee writes in the CIS Winter 2009 edition

China’s overall use of capital is twice as inefficient as India’s when measured in terms of capital inputs used to produce additional output. In fact, World Bank findings indicated that about one-third of recent investments made generated zero or negative returns.(23) Given the regime’s need to continually stimulate the economy for political ends, it is no wonder loans keep on increasing at an incredible pace despite economic rationality demanding that it should not. This might further the end of maintaining loyalty to the ruling Party and entrenching its power, but it is at enormous cost to the country.

..One problem for China is that too heavy an emphasis on state-led development tends to exacerbate inequality as the economy expands. Since the state dispenses the most valued business, career, and professional opportunities, a relatively small group of well-placed and well-connected insiders benefit while opportunities to prosper are denied to the vast majority. This is certainly a serious problem for China

..A second problem is the lack of robust institutions needed by all strong economies. The political imperative of retaining power severely impedes the building of the soft institutions needed for successful capitalism: enforceable property rights, independent courts and rule of law, independent financial and administrative organs.

..given the weaknesses in its economic strategy and civil society, we need to consider the possibility that China is becoming more like an unbalanced South American giant such as Brazil than an East Asian success story such as Taiwan and South Korea.

Improper infection control and treatment increases TB infection

Researchers from Texas found that standard TB treatment rates may not be appropriate for all people;
What we found is that we're really using doses for very skinny people – 105 to 110 pounds. I haven't met many adults who are at that weight."
Implicit to this study is that there exists a quantity of inadequately treated TB patients. It has been well established that inadequate treatment leads to drug resistance and it has now been found that co infection of drug resistant TB with HIV leads to increased TB infectiousness;
A small number of inadequately treated MDR TB patients coinfected with HIV were responsible for almost all TB transmission, and some patients were highly infectious.
The Peru study found that inadequate TB treatment was the critical factor to infectiousness;
although 97 HIV-positive patients with tuberculosis were admitted to the ward, just ten patients were responsible for virtually all the characterized cases of tuberculosis among the guinea pigs. Six of these patients had MDR tuberculosis that had been suboptimally treated.

..the three most infectious patients (all of whom had suboptimally treated MDR tuberculosis) produced 226, 52, and 40 quanta per hour
Given that the average was 8.2 quanta per hour these patients are extremely infectious
These findings show that a few inadequately treated HIV-positive patients with MDR tuberculosis caused nearly all the tuberculosis transmission
In serious cases TB treatment may need to be individually monitored and to that extent Quantiferon was found to be useful
“our results support the candidature of QFT-G [QuantiFERON ® -TB Gold In-Tube] assay as a potential tool to monitor the efficacy of anti-tuberculosis treatment in cases of active PTB. Considering the continued rise of multidrug-resistant TB, our results suggest that QFT-G may be useful in the early detection of likely non-responders, with broader implications for designing individualized treatment.”

August 28, 2009

More on Connecticut

Previously they said that QFT would be available late 2008 and recently (July 20, 2009) they published their very own guideline - click on image for FULL SIZE




If you dont fit this specification you can go to a commercial lab;

The Connecticut Department of Public Health (CTDPH) Laboratory now has the capacity to perform QFT-GIT testing. This test is also offered by Quest (800-982-6810) and Clinical Laboratory Partners (800-286-9800). All requests for testing at the CTDPH Lab should first be discussed with a member of the CTDPH TB Control Program staff (860-509-7722) to determine the appropriateness of testing and to discuss testing logistics. Patients must meet the requirements below in order to request testing through the CTDPH laboratory.

Let the figures speak for themselves

From the Australian
In the biotech sphere, Cellestis (CST, $3.46) has defied the sector's dodgy reputation with a 391 per cent profit boost to $8.23m, on an 80 per cent revenue surge to $35m.

Cellestis sells the tuberculosis testing kit Quantiferon. Its key markets are not darkest Africa but the US, Europe and Japan, which means TB isn't just a vestige of BBC period dramas.

With a $332m market cap (including $19m cash) Cellestis isn't exactly a penny-dreadful speccie play. Hold.

Asian HCWs - a global problem?

A head to head study in Vietnam (a developing country with a high incidence rate of TB) between one-step TST, two-step TST and QFT-GIT amongst HCWs;
In communities with heterogeneous history of BCG vaccination, IGRA seems to estimate TB infection more accurately than any other criteria using TST.
You might think that conducting such a study in a poor country with high rates of TB is of questionable value but the fact is that they did and the declaration of TB as a national priority has committed the Vietnamese government to lowering TB. The only way to do that is to stop new infection and the disease status of HCWs are critical to this path. WHO representatives are advocating that Asian countries strengthen their health systems and that drug resistant TB is man made and commenting that
"Our available tools work but they are not enough,"

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August 27, 2009

NHS goes digital

Those nice people from NICE have set up a handy portal called Evidence in which you can search within the NHS for whatever you want. So I tapped in QuantiFERON and selected time and first cab off the rank was the latest (August 2009) user manual for the National Mycobacterium Reference Laboratory (NMRL).

Big news for them and even bigger news for us is that
Interferon Gamma Release Assays for detection of latent infection and diagnosis have been introduced.
 I can only find reference to QuantiFERON
Interferon Gamma Release Assay
Quantiferon Assay   Reports sent out within 10 working days of receipt of sample.

The HPA have recently produced some guidelines for the collection, storage and transportation of QFT-GIT plus order forms
Please send me _____ packs of QuantiFERON®-TB Gold blood collection tube sets (pack of 10 Antigen tubes (Red cap), 10 Nil antigen tubes (Grey cap), and 10 Mitogen tubes (Purple Cap).
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August 26, 2009

A cracker of a year

Yesterday (25 th August) I made my way down to Melbourne for a presentation by Cellestis at Shaw Stockbroking. The presentation was preceded by publication of the Preliminary Results for 2009. These preliminary results are most satisfying, the Company has achieved a doubling of unit sales for the financial year accompanied by a per unit reduction of costs resulting in a healthy profit. The presentation was equally impressive - the Company's aim is to maintain this growth with QFT becoming the dominant diagnostic in the latent TB market and there is no reason why this will not happen.

During a previous presentation Tony Radford discussed the concept of "tipping points". This now seems irrelevant - QFT has achieved universal acceptance as the superior diagnostic for latent TB. The job ahead is to sell the implementation of QFT.

What struck me was that the Company has no real need to make broker presentations. Patience, persistence and hard work has paid off for the two intelligent and thrifty principals, Drs Tony Radford and Jim Rothel. In 9 years the Company has grown from what could have just been "another good idea" to a Company that has achieved the global recognition and approval of its peers. By being consistently good managers they are achieving their goals without the burden of debt and with the solid support of shareholders and these presentations are more a means of communicating with shareholders rather than stock brokers.

On a personal level I find that I always learn something new and yesterday Tony Radford raised the important point that its not just a simple matter of marketplace buyers and sellers of products or services it is one of partners, including shareholders.

So it is a big thank you from me (and I am sure from many others) to Tony Radford and Jim Rothel for taking the time and going to the trouble of keeping me so well informed.

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August 24, 2009

Bad news for doomsayers

Steve Horwitz points to census data which clearly shows a decline of the middle class - to that of wealthy.
Fewer households are poor, fewer are middle class, and a hunk more are above $75K.
The Economist magazine also advised that as a result of rapid growth in emerging countries over half the world's population now belongs to the middle class.
The surge across the poverty line is a period of accelerating growth both for the new middle class and for the country it inhabits. That should continue for a couple of decades. By most estimates, the global middle class will more than double in number between now and 2030. This will have profound social consequences, as happened in previous middle-class surges.
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Evidence Based Tuberculosis Diagnosis


In 2001 the Stop TB Partnership formed the Stop TB Partnership's New Diagnostics Working Group (NDWG) and the NWDG is now online

Madhukar Pai from McGill University plays a key role in the NDWG and his work enjoys an unrivalled prominence

In their expert review paper TB diagnostic tests: how do we figure out their costs? the expert reviewers, including Madhukar Pai, caution that
With no ultimate ‘gold standard’ test in TB, readers (policy makers) as well as study investigators must be always cautious in declaring one test as ‘cost-effective’ against another.

...there are currently no widely accepted standards on how to evaluate costs of a TB test
and they advise that
In the next few years, we hope to develop a standardized tool for costing of any TB diagnostic
No doubt their hopes and wishes are well intended however this work should not further frustrate or delay the work of those already charged with the responsibilty to ending the neglect, the very same neglect that allows TB to flourish.

August 23, 2009

Dividend imputation to stay

Ken Henry from Treasury talking about Australia's future tax system
I do not think, however, the time has yet come for dividend imputation to be abandoned.

Warren Buffett rings the bell

Back in October 2008 Warren Buffett said
"People who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts."
He repeated the message last month when he said that he
"..would much rather own equities at 9000 on the Dow than have a long investment in government bonds or a continuously rolling investment in short-term money."
And last week he said that inflation could be the only answer to the enormous debt incurred
Legislators will correctly perceive that either raising taxes or cutting expenditures will threaten their re-election. To avoid this fate, they can opt for high rates of inflation, which never require a recorded vote and cannot be attributed to a specific action that any elected official takes. In fact, John Maynard Keynes long ago laid out a road map for political survival amid an economic disaster of just this sort: “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.... The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

IGRA Echo Symposium in San Franscisco - "Putting Interferon Gamma Release Assays into Practice"



Preliminary Speaker List


Antonino Catanzaro MD
University of California, San Diego

Masae Kawamura MD
San Francisco Department of Public Health

Tiffany Harris MD
NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene Bureau of TB Control

Deborah Lewinsohn MD
Oregon Health and Science University

David Lewinsohn MD PhD
Oregon Health and Science University

Charles Daley MD
National Jewish Hospital

Krista Powell/Maryam Haddad
CDC

Spanish HCWs and IGRA

This head-to-head study (Evaluation of Interferon-Gamma Release Assays in the Diagnosis of Recent Tuberculosis Infection in Health Care Workers) has a fairly predictable outcome with a twist
IFN-γ tests are a useful tool for detecting recent infection in HCWs population,
the twist being recent infections. Whilst IGRAs are not affected by prior BCG vaccination (and the number of BCG vaccinated people can be fairly easily determined) this study showed that the TST was also picking up past infections in non BCG vaccinated people who were TST+ and IGRA-
the results suggested that in the 20% of cases these individuals were infected in the past.
This is a significant number and probably means that the TST is reacting to memory T cells in all people, not just those who are BCG vaccinated.

The implication is that IGRA's enhanced capabilities are applicable to both BCG and non BCG vaccinated populations. This was the experience of the Cincinatti study which found that
QFT-G and QFT-GIT are clinically and economically worthwhile alternatives to TST and should be considered in screening non-BCG and BCG vaccinated HCWs for LTBI
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August 22, 2009

Rudd's war on words

Lightning tack into oblivion

Emboldened by Kevin Rudd's attack on free markets anti capitalists are shrieking "show me the money"
I would also like to see some real evidence supporting her claim that the freest economies in the world are also most conducive to economic growth, social accord and personal happiness. This is simply not backed up by any peer-reviewed literature..
The letter writer was referring to a piece by Julie Novak in which Lindsay Tanners piss poor policy on social engineering was examined
The notion that the state should nudge individuals to make better decisionsoverlooks the fact politicians and government officials are also afflicted by behavioural biases.
Those unfortunates being detained in China would agree. Anyhoo Sinclair Davidson from RMIT points us into the direction of any number of studies into economic freedom and Wikipedia has an entry
Hundreds of peer-reviewed articles have used the index. It have been used in, for example, economic research, political science, and environmental research...

Higher economic freedom, as measured by both the Heritage and the Fraser indices, correlates strongly with higher self-reported happiness...

Higher economic freedom is extremely significant in preventing wars. Economic freedom is around 54 times more effective than democracy (as measured by Democracy Score) in diminishing violent conflict...

What was the question..?

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China in the bull shop

The arrest of RIO executive Stern Hu by Chinese authorities continues to demonstrate just how weak their case is, as reported in the China Daily the claim appears to be based only on the hearsay of a director of a steel company. The obvious conflict of interest makes a mockery of previous entreaties by a minor Govt flunky to "respect China's court process" and that "critics should wait for the facts to come to light". The latest tirade from spook Jiang Ruqin was without any fact and the claim that RIO has cost an additional $102 billion in excessive charges indicates that the totalitarian Chinese regime has seriously lost the plot;
Bloomberg data showed that Rio Tinto's global iron ore revenue in the 5 years from 2004 to 2008 were $41 billion. Jiang consequently admitted to using data from China Central Television and the China Youth Daily newspaper for his accusation.
These obvious and simple errors are deeply damaging to the international face of the Socialist Republic of China

More on cost effectiveness

As previously noted here costs are critical to public health programs and once again Roland Diel and his team from Hannover Germany are able to provide compelling evidence that in a head to head comparison with TST not only does a QuantiFERON based screening program provide a more accurate indicator of progression to TB, it is also the least expensive alternative for LTBI screening and treatment.
IPT (isoniazid preventive treatment) on the basis of using the QFT assay alone produces less cost and reduces more TB cases than other strategies in a low-incidence setting. These data have implications for the rational implementation of screening strategies in contact investigation.
Important to the study was the idea that a decision to diagnose is a decision to treat,
We must dramatically increase willingness to be treated as the first step in order to increase the potential for prevention of development to active TB disease.
Treatment compliance for those on a TST based program has been traditionally poor whilst a diagnosis by QFT appears to be more acceptable
Sahni et al recently reported that the proportion of newly hired, QFT positive HCW who started IPT increased from 24% having a positive TST result (of at least 15 mm) before implementation of the highly specific QFT to 52%, although they were not close contacts of recent TB cases.
Once again using TST generated data carries the risk of inherited inaccuracies;
our data likely underestimates the true potential of INH chemoprevention because they are based solely on a TST-dominated meta-analysis and worst case scenario. It is therefore probable that the true effectiveness of an IPT program based on the new test may be higher than we calculated.


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August 21, 2009

Nudge me two times baby

Our well meaning but inherently stupid government continues to defy and deny logic; any thoughts that Minister of Finance and Deregulation (whatever that may mean) Lindsay Tanner possessed sufficient cranial matter to pass muster as intelligent were countermanded by himself in the Oz;
somewhere at Schiphol airport in Amsterdam there is a urinal with a life-size fly painted on it at a strategic height. It was put there as an experiment in male behaviour. Sure enough, the outcome was a significant reduction in cleaning for that particular urinal. By using human psychology the airport got some of its male customers to pay more attention to their aim.

This story is cited by Barack Obama's regulation tsar, Cass Sunstein, as an example of how regulators can improve outcomes without using traditional command and control mechanisms. He calls this approach nudge regulation, where people retain choices but are gently pushed in a particular direction.
Without doubt this has to be the most piss weak argument for social engineering I ever heard.

The collective of statisticians is a quant?

Try saying that after a couple of cold ones.

Whilst the GFC has focused attention on the veracity of statisticians and the mathematical models they employ it is still worth contemplating the quantum of loss due to TB;

via the computational mathematicians at Wolfram Alpha



That is a shocking figure, every year the world loses 34.7 million life years to TB - a disease that is both treatable and preventable.

Another brick in the wall

From the BMJ, whilst acid fast staining and TST drew a blank QFT came up trumps by correctly diagnosed non pulmonary active TB;

----------------

Over the course of 6 months, an 8-year-old boy presented with cutaneous lumps: a postauricular lump, a fluctuant scalp lump, a lump adjacent to his shin, and a firm chest wall lump. Although he was born in the UK, his family were from Kenya and had visited there after the symptoms started. After multiple courses of antibiotics and antifungals with no improvement, he underwent ultrasound scanning that showed erosion of bone under the lumps and computed tomographic (CT) scanning which showed tibial osteomyelitis. A biopsy of the chest wall lump showed granulomatous inflammation, and pus was extracted from the shin lump that was negative on Ziehl–Neilsen and Gram staining. A tuberculin skin test was equivocal, Quantiferon test positive and 12 days later Mycobacterium tuberculosis was cultured from the pus. The patient was started on quadruple antituberculous therapy and his skin lumps have improved. The long term outcome of the osteomyelitis remains to be seen.

August 18, 2009

Wondering?



Just a short note for avid followers of this blog. The author of the blog has taken a "well deserved" holiday away from all computers and will return at the end of this week.



August 8, 2009

New Tuberculosis Blood Test Is Often 'Indeterminate' in Children


link

A new type of blood test for tuberculosis has important limitations for use in children—especially very young children and those with abnormal immune function, reports a study in the August issue of The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal.

Newswise — A new type of blood test for tuberculosis (TB) has important limitations for use in children—especially very young children and those with abnormal immune function, reports a study in the August issue of The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal. The journal is published by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, a part of Wolters Kluwer Health, a leading provider of information and business intelligence for students, professionals, and institutions in medicine, nursing, allied health and pharmacy.

Two accompanying editorials offer divergent viewpoints regarding the most appropriate use of the new tests—called interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs)—in children at risk of TB.

Children's Hospital Study Shows High Rate of 'Indeterminate' TB Results
In a study led by Dr. Thomas Haustein of Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, London, researchers analyzed the results of IGRA testing in 237 children with suspected or possible TB. The IGRA tests are increasingly used in place of conventional skin tests for diagnosing latent (present but inactive) TB infection or active TB disease.

The study found that 35 percent of the children had "indeterminate" results on IGRA testing, leaving it unclear whether or not they had TB infection or disease. Many of the children referred for TB testing had abnormal immune function because of disease or other reasons (for example, cancer chemotherapy). For this group, the rate of indeterminate results reached 66 percent.

Indeterminate results on IGRA testing were also more likely for younger children. Among children with normal immune function, the rate of indeterminate results decreased by 13 percent for each one-year increase in age.

In nearly 90 percent of children, the results of IGRA testing agreed with standard skin tests. However, the IGRA test missed one-fourth of children (12 out of 16) who later developed confirmed tuberculosis.

Experts Offer Contrasting Views on IGRA Testing in Children
The diagnosis of TB can be difficult to make, especially in children. The IGRA tests offer some important advantages over standard TB skin tests, which have been used for decades. Although their use is recommended in national guidelines, experience with IGRAs is still limited—especially in children.
"We certainly do not dispute that IGRAs can yield valuable diagnostic information in children, but our results highlight some problematic issues,"
Dr. Haustein and colleagues write. Pending further research, they often perform both IGRA and skin testing in children at risk of TB.

So how should the IGRA tests be used in children? A pair of editorials provide expert perspectives. Dr. Deborah A. Lewinsohn of Oregon Health Sciences University believes that, despite the limitations, health care providers should embrace IGRA testing, rather than clinging to the "antiquated" TB skin test. She concludes,
"We need to keep moving forward to prevent child health from falling behind, gain more experience with IGRAs to create rational guidelines, and continue to demand attention to one of the most vulnerable populations to TB."

Dr. Dwight A. Powell of The Ohio State University College of Medicine takes a different view, highlighting the potential inaccuracies of IGRAs in children. He calls for more research into the high rate of indeterminate results and other unanswered questions about IGRA testing in children, before they replace TB skin tests—especially in young children who are at highest risk of developing active TB disease.

About The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal
The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal® (http://www.pidj.com) is a peer-reviewed, multidisciplinary journal directed to physicians and other health care professionals who manage infectious diseases of childhood. The journal delivers the latest insights on all aspects of infectious disease in children, from state-of-art diagnostic techniques to the most effective drug therapies and other essential treatment protocols. The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal is official journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society and the European Society for Paediatric Infectious Diseases.

About Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins (LWW) is a leading international publisher for healthcare professionals and students with nearly 300 periodicals and 1,500 books in more than 100 disciplines publishing under the LWW brand, as well as content-based sites and online corporate and customer services.

LWW is part of Wolters Kluwer Health, a leading provider of information and business intelligence for students, professionals and institutions in medicine, nursing, allied health and pharmacy. Major brands include traditional publishers of medical and drug reference tools and textbooks, such as Lippincott Williams & Wilkins and Facts & Comparisons®; and electronic information providers, such as Ovid®, UpToDate®, Medi-Span® and ProVation® Medical.

Wolters Kluwer Health is a division of Wolters Kluwer, a leading global information services and publishing company. The company provides products and services for professionals in the health, tax, accounting, corporate, financial services, legal, and regulatory sectors. Wolters Kluwer had 2008 annual revenues of €3.4 billion ($4.9 billion), employs approximately 20,000 people worldwide, and maintains operations in over 35 countries across Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Wolters Kluwer is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Its shares are quoted on Euronext Amsterdam (WKL) and are included in the AEX and Euronext 100 indices. Visit www.wolterskluwer.com for information about our market positions, customers, brands, and organization.

August 6, 2009

QFT-GIT gets a guernsey in Mexico

Hot off the presses (The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease), as they say el exito llama al exito

_____________________________________

This analysis shows that, in a middle-income country with high TB prevalence and escalating HIV prevalence, the use of QFT-GIT for screening of LTBI could have a public health benefit and be cost-effective by reasonable standards. In fact, the TB screening and treatment program considered in this analysis was more cost-effective (US$108/QALY) than other accepted preventive interventions such as routine Papanicolaou test for cervical cancer in sexually active women (>US$14 000/QALY), colorectal screening in older adults using fecal occult blood test (US$10 000/QALY), and routine diabetes screening in adults and diet counseling for patients at risk for cardiovascular disease (>US$14 000/QALY).34 Compared to other accepted TB control interventions in resource-limited settings, this program can be as cost-effective as TB contact tracing in adults and only slightly more expensive than DOT for active TB (US$91/QALY).

_____________________________________

Targeted screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection using QuantiFERON®-TB Gold is cost-effective in Mexico

J. L. Burgos,* J. G. Kahn,† S. A. Strathdee,* A. Valencia-Mendoza,‡ S. Bautista-Arredondo,‡ R. Laniado-Laborin,§ R. Castañeda,§ R. Deiss,* R. S. Garfein*
* Division of Global Public Health, School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California
† Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies and Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of
California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA; ‡ Dirección de Economía de la Salud, Instituto Nacional de
Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, § Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Tijuana, México
Correspondence to: Jose L Burgos, Department of Medicine, Division of Global Public Health, University of California
San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive MS 0507, La Jolla, CA 92093-0507, USA. Tel: (+1) 858 822 2055. Fax: (+1) 858 534
7566. e-mail: jlburgos@ucsd.edu

Article submitted 12 November 2008. Final version accepted 26 March 2009.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) using a commercially available detection test and treating individuals at high risk for human immunodefi ciency virus (HIV) infection in a middle-income country.

DESIGN: We developed a Markov model to evaluate the cost per LTBI case detected, TB case averted and quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained for a cohort of 1000 individuals at high risk for HIV infection over 20 years.

Baseline model inputs for LTBI prevalence were obtained from published literature and cross-sectional data from tuberculosis (TB) screening using QuantiFERON®- TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) testing among sex workers and illicit drug users at high risk for HIV recruited through street outreach in Tijuana, Mexico. Costs are reported in 2007 US dollars. Future costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% per year. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate model robustness.

RESULTS: Over 20 years, we estimate the program would prevent 78 cases of active TB and 55 TB-related deaths. The incremental cost per case of LTBI detected was US$730, cost per active TB averted was US$529 and cost per QALY gained was US$108.

CONCLUSIONS: In settings of endemic TB and escalating HIV incidence, targeting LTBI screening and treatment among high-risk groups may be highly cost-effective.

Square pies

Arnold Kling asks; Think of three points on an ideological triangle:

1. Point L, where you believe that markets are effective at processing information and solving problems. This position is to take a radically pro-market view, and to let markets fix their own failures.

2. Point C, where you believe that tradition incorporates the evolved use of information to solve problems. This position is to be very cautious about overthrowing existing institutional arrangements.

3. Point P, where you believe that expert technocrats should be in charge. You are comfortable with throwing out tradition and markets in order to cede power to experts.

He then asks for examples. Lets see;

Point L - food, cars, houses, finance, communication and other essentials.

Point C - energy, water and roads remain mostly in government hands for political reasons only.

Point P - public transport is run by the government which is probably why there are so many cars on the road.

Quantiferon in Japan

As reported by JATA; a Japanese woman had a negative diagnosis by smear and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and a positive diagnosis by QuantiFERON TB Gold In Tube (QFT-GIT) and treatment of active non pulmonary TB was prescribed based solely on the diagnosis by QFT-GIT.

_________________________

Case Report

A CASE OF AXILLARY LYMPH NODE TUBERCULOSIS WITH PARADOXICAL WORSENING IN BREAST LESION

Kanako KOBAYASHI, Shuichi YANO, Toshikazu IKEDA, Toru KADOWAKI, Kiryo WAKABAYASHI, Masahiro KIMURA, Shigenori ISHIKAWA, and Hiroyasu TAKEYAMA

Abstract

A 80-year-old woman was admitted to our hospital because of left axillary swelling. Needle biopsy specimen showed negative results on a smear for acid-fast bacilli and PCR. The histological findings showed epithelioid cell granuloma with caseous necrosis.

QFTRTB-2G showed positivity of 1.9 IU/ml in ESAT-6.

We diagnosed tuberculous lymphadenopathy and administered antituberculous drugs.

After 3 weeks of treatment, in spite of the regression of lymphadenopathy, mammary swelling had progressed.

We performed a biopsy of the mammary lesion, but did not detect any abnormal findings.

As the mammary lesion had regressed by the continued treatment of antituberculous drugs, we thought the mammary swelling was paradoxical worsening.

August 5, 2009

Joined at the lip

In announcing the death of free markets left wing UK PM Gordon Brown happily chirruped that
For those worried about their homes let me tell you that ordinary homeowners should not be the first to pay the price of financial failures. We will help people trying their best to pay their mortgages to stay in their own homes.
Our roving PM Kevin Rudd later confirmed that he and Gordon were singing from the same songsheet;
never before in modern economic history have banks and governments agreed between themselves a framework for dealing with this core part of the economic impediment to recovery, which is restoring our banks to health here, in the United States and in Europe more broadly.
Perhaps he was referring to Northern Rock, the UK bank which ran into financial trouble prompting the Government to nationalise it. At the time the Chancellor, Alistair Darling advised that
the public would gain if the government held on to Northern Rock until market conditions improved.
Plans were drawn up to turn the Rock into a "good bank" by injecting up to £10bn into the state-owned lender which was later confirmed as fact
Northern Rock to offer up to £14 billion of new mortgage lending over next two years

..the Company is now well placed to move forward and support Government policy to increase mortgage lending capacity in the market.
The National Audit Office found that UK Treasury was allowing 125% mortgages prompting criticism for
allowing Northern Rock to lend £800m in risky mortgages for six months after it was propped up with taxpayers' cash
Judging by todays news The Big Dream aint working
Alistair Darling, UK chancellor, is expected to delay the sale of the healthy parts of Northern Rock until after the general election, it emerged on Tuesday, as the nationalised bank announced half-year losses of almost £725m.

..That revelation prompted Tory opposition claims that the government would never get its money back: Northern Rock still owes the government £10.9bn

“The government told us that the Northern Rock loan book was good but now 39 per cent of it is in negative equity and Northern Rock’s arrears rate is considerably higher than the industry average,”
Clearly under a socialist democracy it is the taxpayers who are compelled to carry the risk and burden of financial failure.

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August 4, 2009

Full Rudder

Our high fibre prime minister, Kevin Rudd, is fond of invoking past and preferably dead thinkers. In his 2006 essay Howards Brutopia he assigns the labour and liberal camps with suitable philosophies;
Modern Labor, following (Adam) Smith, argues that human beings are both "self-regarding" and "other-regarding". By contrast, modern Liberals, influenced by Hayek, argue that human beings are almost exclusively self-regarding.
Rudd then expands on Adam Smith by saying
Smith conceived of a market supported by a complex set of social relationships based on reciprocity, trust and civic commitment. Modern economists might describe this as the "social capital" necessary to underpin and enhance economic performance.
No doubt Rudd is preaching to the middle ground; it is anachronistic to compare the writings of the late 18thC with current events. That is not to say that Adam Smith should be disregarded and his commonsense is as pertinent now as it was in 1776;
It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages.

..I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the publick good.
Here Smith clearly says that self interest is mutually beneficial, an argument seemingly counter intuitive to social democrats. In his essay Does Kevin Rudd need to save families from capitalism? Peter Saunders counters the notion that "selfishness" is socially destructive
As Adam Smith showed, it is in the interests of traders to take heed of the needs of others, foster long-term trust, behave honestly and decently, and develop ties of mutual respect and civility, for that is how you cultivate customers and retain a loyal workforce.

Again it boils down to commonsense

August 3, 2009

More on HCW costs

This study from Israel is interesting as it actually follows the path from diagnosis to treatment and compares the total costs of both using known data;

Model 1 (TST‐only): all patients are screened with a two‐step TST.
Model 2 (QFT‐only): a QFT test result is the arbiter of referral.
Model 3 (TST+QFT): IGRA is used for confirming a positive TST before referring for diagnosis/treatment.

A single TST cost $12 and a single QFT cost $57 with the cost of LTBI treatment being $486.

Allowing for additional TST testing (2 step) and associated costs of unnecessary treatment resulted in the TST being the more costly;
Using the QFT to screen HCWs for latent TB either alone or in the TST+QFT model resulted in cost‐minimization compared to the TST. The QFT‐only approach also resulted in significant reduction in clinic visits and improved adherence to treatment. The QFT‐based screening model appears to be a feasible alternative to the current TST‐based model.
in this study there was no allowance for "failure to return", at a London teaching hospital only 148 of 171 subjects returned a valid TST result as opposed to 171 QFT results.

This failure to return is another significant factor in the argument against TST leading the UK researchers to conclude that operationally QFT is the superior
For serial or subsequent testing of healthcare workers, the IGRA is a more appropriate test because it eliminates the need for a second visit and is not affected by interreader variability and previous bacille Calmette- Gue´rin vaccination.
What is becoming apparent is that whilst the total QFT argument is compelling, if taken separately each element (cost of follow-up, BCG vaccination, return visit etc) is sufficient to prove the case.

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August 2, 2009

Competition update

As of now here are the entries for calculating/forecasting/guessing the FY 2009 financial results for Cellestis. Its never too late to enter, up to the date of announcement all late entries will be accepted, follow the links on the sidebar → → → → →

The table has been sorted in ascending order of NPAT (nett profit after tax).

Click on image for FULL SIZE

August 1, 2009

bioMerieux Conference

Not so well publicised was the latent TB conference held by bioMérieux Diagnostics -the conference was held at Les Pensières Conference Center, Annecy (France) on March 23-24, 2009

Not apparent in the conference document is that bioMérieux act as agents for T-Spot.TB

Curiously bioMérieux did not list the conference in either events or news

The theme of the conference appears to be that the
Eradication of tuberculosis in low-prevalence countries is judged to be a realistic aim

A few quotable quotes;

”The limitations of the TST are clear. In a hospital setting, I do not solely use TST, since a false-negative test result can have dramatic consequences, especially for (future) immunocompromized patients who are at most risk of developing active TB”
Ailko Bossink, MD, PhD (Utrecht, Netherlands)

“There is no doubt that the introduction of IGRA is one of the most amazing contributions to the control of tuberculosis over the last years.
Jean-Pierre Zellweger, MD (Fribourg, Switzerland)

“It makes sense to use the most reliable tests in the individuals with the highest risk of TB infection”
Prof. Luca Richeldi, MD, PhD (Modena, Italy)