February 23, 2010

A tale of two tails

Whilst Lodge display confidence in Cellestis
We assess Cellestis as a BUY with a spot valuation of $4.49 and a 12 month price
target of $5.05.
BioShares were less than impressed
.. based on current sales growth rates and the company’s capitalisation, the stock appears overvalued.

Bioshares recommendation: Sell
If we assume the target of 30% market penetration by 2020 (ex Lodge) and allow that the market is 50M tests pa (ex Lodge) and the revenue for each test is $A17 (ex forrestgump) we can calculate that a sales growth of ~27.7% pa from 2007 should meet that target

By comparing the projected with the current sales growth we can see that current sales is well ahead of the projection.

The recent HY result, of a sales growth of 26%, confirms that trend