I have seen a couple of your posts where you talk about the impact of 3G in Japan coming through this half.Normally comments on HC are treated with a very large pinch of salt however as 'Alexanders' somewhat infrequent posts appear to be considered and knowledgeable they did attract some attention.
I do not think this will have a big impact. There was a lot of negative feeling about 3G in Japan when the first batch of tubes had endotoxin contamination and were recalled. Now the Research Institute of TB in Japan thinks the gel in the tube gets soft in hot weather, breaks off, stimulates the blood cells and gives false positive results. They are openly saying this in Japan.
All of this will delay new customers moving to QFT.
Existing 2G customers will have to move to 3G when 2G is stopped in a couple of months but this will just be substitution so will not affect total revenue.
The reality is that Cellestis advised of a product recall due to endotoxin contamination in August 2009 and further advised of problems with excessive shaking in November 2009. Furthermore, in their 2010 half yearly presentation Cellestis advised of the lag in uptake in Japan for that period and that this lag was in the process of being resolved (those who attended the broker presentation were also in). This was also confirmed by their agent who said that these two issues had caused them to suspend deliveries of Quantiferon, a suspension that was lifted in January 2010.
So I think that on the evidence available it is reasonable to conclude that the anonymous 'Alexanders' is simply dressing up old news as new with a bit of hyperbole thrown in to spice things up.
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