Is there a doctor in the house?

Our expert tells us that

Overall, we do not consider the CSAG’s Valuation of a Cellestis share to be reasonable...

(in part) because

due to the a wide range of reasonable scenarios for the key assumptions underpinning the discounted cash flow valuation, which can lead to a wide range of possible valuation outcomes.

However,  our experts own valuation is reasonable and fair because

Our discounted cash flow analysis considered the following three growth scenarios for Cellestis

These 3 scenarios are based on

revenue growth of 30% p.a. during the initial years

with subsequent revenue growth shrinking to 8%, 5% and 3% respectively.

According to our expert this change from 30% to 8,5 or 3% is reasonable whereas

in our opinion, the revenue growth assumptions adopted in the CSAG Model are optimistic. The revenue growth assumptions imply that Cellestis will achieve a market share of 36% by 2020. In our opinion, this is not a reasonable assumption

CSAG have used the growth projections provided by Cellestis, which one would think a reasonable assumption and ones which our expert also chose to use

Cellestis has achieved relatively stable EBIT margins over the past two years, despite significant foreign currency fluctuations... at the Company’s Annual General Meeting in November 2010, management advised that it expects underlying growth for the business to be in the range of 30% to 40% during FY 2011...Based on the above considerations, we have estimated future maintainable EBIT to be in the range of AUD 15.0 million to AUD 16.0 million,

In this regard it would appear that our expert considers shareholders assumptions to be unreasonable, even when based on company forecasts.

ASIC are dismissive of experts using hypothetical assumptions

We consider that prospective financial information based on hypothetical assumptions (rather than reasonable grounds) is likely to be misleading and provide little information value to investors.

advice which our expert appears to have ignored.