Stephen Koukoulas (worked in Treasury, was Chief Economist (Australia) at Citibank, was advisor to the Prime Minister, wrote for the Australian Financial Review and led the global research team for TD Securities from London)
casts his eye over the midterm budget
-Total government receipts (tax, dividends, fees and the like) was 21.6% of GDP in 2010-11, the lowest level since 1973-74 when Frank Crean was Treasurer.
-The tax to GDP ratio fell to 20.0% in 2010-11, the lowest since 1978-79 and is a whopping 4.2% of GDP below the record tax to GDP ratio raked in by the Howard government in 2004-05 and 2005-06. That's a lesser tax take of around $60 billion for one year that was taken from tax payers during the peak period of the Howard government. As mentioned elsewhere, it is easy to register a budget surplus when you tax the living daylights out of the population.
-Real government payments (spending) will rise by an average of less than 0.1% per annum in the 3 years to 2012-13, the weakest 3 yearly spending growth since the mid to late 1980s under the Hawke/Keating Government. Never once did the Howard Government deliver a cut in real government spending - in fact real spending grew by a thumping 3.5% per annum for the last 5 years of the Howard government.
-Payments (spending) will be 23.6% of GDP in 2012-13 - around 1.5% of GDP below the average of the last 30 years. In the 12 Howard Government Budgets, spending to GDP averaged 24.2% of GDP: and only in 3 years out of 12 of the Howard Government was the spending to GDP ratio lower than the Gillard Government is projecting for 2012-13. Which government is addicted to spending?
-The 4.3% of GDP turnaround in the Budget balance in the 3 years to 2012-13 (from a deficit of 4.2% to a surplus of 0.1%) is the most rapid turn in the fiscal position on record.
There are more gems I'm sure, but that is for another day
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