Bob Rodriguez
talks about when he was in college and this guest lecturer, someone called Charlie Munger, was present;
I walked up to Charlie and asked him if there was one thing that I could
do that would make me a better investment professional. His answer was,
'Read history, read history, read history.'
Josh Brown (who says he is a
reformed broker) looks at the history of the market
You should know that even if the secular bear market isn't quite through
with us, we may have seen the worst of his claws and teeth. You should
study the other secular bear markets and then you'd learn something
about "wine glass bottoms". You'd know that in the 1966 to 1982 secular
bear market (and all the others before it), the very bottom for stocks
occurred NOT in a crescendo at the end - but rather somewhere toward the
middle. Think of 2009 as the middle and most severe point of this
secular bear, picture that Dow 6500 print as the stem of the wine
glass. It doesn't mean we're out the woods, but it does mean that the
follow-on sell-offs may not be quite as painful and should subside
faster:
I have no idea when this secular bear market and the attendant economic malaise will truly be over - but I know for a fact
that if you're not planning for its end you're going to miss your
chance. You'll be flatfooted for the pivot, too close-minded for the
turn, too fat for the sprint that begins when those Animal Spirits take
hold.
So get your shit together. Now.
