The shift to online retail from the NAB

The data presents the scope of the online retail  environment. At $10.5 billion, online represented 4.9% of traditional retail spending in 2011 and is  growing at a rate of 29% per annum, compared  with traditional retail sales growth of 2.5%. Although domestic retailers hold three-quarters of online market share, sales growth favours international retailers; for the full year, international sales grew by 40%, while domestic sales increased by 25%.

George Megalogenis on poll driven parties.

Stuck behind Rupert's pay wall

Poll-driven parties put the individual first at electors' expense

THE nuttiness in the Australian political system did not begin with Kevin Rudd's sacking in 2010.

The main parties have been yielding to personality-based politics since at least 2003.

It is worth reflecting on that period because many of the screwy election results since in the federal and state jurisdictions can be put down to the miscalculations both sides made when they were faced with a choice between old and new.

The leadership tussles were between John Howard and Peter Costello, and between Simon Crean and Kim Beazley.

The same stuff was being argued then as now: who will win us the next election?

Howard decided to run again, after previously hinting he would retire on turning 64. Costello, unwilling to damage the government, copped it sweet. Labor, meanwhile, let anger get the better of it and elected Mark Latham, not Beazley, after Crean fell over at the end of that year.

The truth is the nation was ready for a federal Labor government; or, failing that, a more moderate Coalition one, but it was denied by the match-up of Howard v Latham. Each side sent the wrong man to the ballot box.

Latham was an early warning of what the US Republicans have witnessed in their presidential soap opera this year. The fresh face received a surge in support. But the public interest in the new candidate vanished with the first gaffe. Remember troops out by Christmas?

This pattern of excess praise followed by punishment in extremis is the new abnormal in reporting politics. It is part of a wider problem of the digital age: the hijack of public debate by opinion polling.

By playing the short game, Latham gave Howard a fourth term. An explosion of middle-class welfare and the double-cross of Work Choices were the unintended consequences of Labor's impatience. But the public must also share some responsibility. Giving the Coalition control of the senate was surely a mistake.

What followed was a cycle of over-correction that may have some years yet to play out before a sense of stability is restored.

The electorate seemed to be acting rationally in the mid-noughties. Voters took out insurance against a long-term Coalition government in Canberra by sticking with long-term Labor governments at the state level. But this repeated the let-down. The implosion of the NSW government after its re-election in 2007 and of the Queensland government after 2009 were system failures of an equivalent scale to Work Choices: the people didn't deserve to be betrayed, but they made it so by sticking with the incumbent.

Again the primary blame lies with the opposition of the day. The conservatives in the rugby league states were like Latham's Labor in the federal parliament, painfully unready for office. Yet in each jurisdiction the reward for the opposition was a landslide just one term later because the devil we knew had exhausted us.

Howard lost not just government but his seat in 2007 while the Coalition shredded its next generation of leaders in Costello and Malcolm Turnbull in its first two years of opposition.

At the state level, Labor was wiped out in NSW last year, and party insiders expect a similar rout in Queensland next month.

But then the new boss was worse than the old boss. Here is the rub for voters. When they give a long-term government one too many wins, they deny themselves the right to scrutinise the alternative at the following election.

Labor people complain incessantly that Tony Abbott is trying to slide into office without having his policies tested. But the pot is roaring at the kettle. Rudd sailed into office without facing hard questions of policy detail and implementation, not just from the media but from his own side as well. To listen to his colleagues complain now about the dysfunction of his first term is to be reminded that they didn't do their due diligence before they elected him to replace Beazley mark II.

There were Coalition attacks on Rudd's character in 2007 that seemed to anticipate his flaws as a manager. Remember he dined with disgraced former West Australian premier Brian Burke, he drank too much at a strip club in the US? But the electorate picked those sledges for what they were: a tired old government seeking another term by default.

Rudd's failure to deliver is being repeated by Barry O'Farrell's Coalition in NSW. The method is different: Rudd tried to do too much, O'Farrell is doing too little. But the national interest suffers just the same. NSW is the state most in need of reform. Yet the Coalition is behaving as if it has all the time in the world. It has eschewed a Kennett-style shock for incrementalism.

In Western Australia and Victoria, where voters swapped governments just in time, leaving much tighter parliaments, reform appears to be no more forthcoming. Colin Barnett is the new Joh, yelling insults at Canberra. Ted Baillieu is the new Steve Bracks, a nice guy with a curiously mangled leader's voice.

Queensland is an unusual example that will prove the rule that changing governments one term too late denies the public the right to know what it is in for. LNP leader Campbell Newman is not even a member of parliament.

The focus on the leader is a reminder of the increasing presidentialisation of politics and the weakness of the main parties. Labor and the Coalition yield to the leader because there is no other way to sell themselves. Kevin07 and Can-Do Newman are brands that deliberately place individual above cause.

The irony is, the most effective government in the nation today is neither popular nor commands a majority in its own right. Julia Gillard has achieved more in the past 1 1/2 years than any government since Howard's first term between 1996 and 1998.

The punchline is it is Rudd's agenda she has been successfully negotiating with the Greens and independents.

Inflation not as big an issue as some would have it?

Bearing in mind that the ECB sole raison d'être is inflation and the FDA has the parallel tasks of employment and inflation control yet it would seem that neither body has done a very good job of running things.

Matt Yglesias (Slate) looks downunder and is pleasantly surprised...

Australia is currently undergoing an amusing leadership battle between two titans of the Labor Party, incumbent Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd who used to be Prime Minister until his then-deputy Gillard deposed him in a swift intra-party coup. Perhaps related to the relative lack of substance in the leadership battle, Australia is awesome at fighting recessions. While American economic commentators have looked at two straight long "jobless" recoveries and concluded that the very structure of the world economy has changed, Australia . . . just skipped those recessions.

I would suggest that not coincidentally, while Australia is better than the USA at avoiding prolonged periods of agonizing mass unemployment and wage stagnation, they're not as good at generating consistently low and stable inflation.

People sometimes try to tell you that Australia is just a story about commodities exports to China, but I think the inflation numbers are telling. Around the late-90s boom, Australia's inflationary peak was much larger than ours and then when they corrected downward they weren't as aggressive about it as the Fed was. After the global financial crisis the US CPI slipped into negative territory specifically because of tumbling commodity prices, but commodity-oriented Australia kept inflation positive and then re-inflated a bit. These things can be done if you want to do them.

Dear Kevin, will you just piss off?

As Leader of the Opposition you were great and as PM you were good but now you are turning into a bitter and vengeful ex statesman. No good blaming "faceless men", you alone are the master of your destiny, the lead actor in your soap opera.

Just take a back seat, represent your electorate not your ego and let the record speak for itself.

Hedge funds getting a good clipping.

Link

THE past few years have been “as miserable as I can remember”, says Johnny Boyer of Boyer Allen Investment Management, a British hedge fund focused on Asia. The fund, which looked after $1.9 billion at its peak, faced the prospect of spending the next few years trying to claw its way back to pre-crisis asset levels. Instead the founders decided to shut the fund and give investors their money back.

Others have also had enough. “I’ve been doing this for 15 years and I’ve never seen as many people give up as in the last three months,” says Luke Ellis of Man Group, a large listed fund. This trend is distinct from the round of closures in 2008. Then, managers were hit by investors’ redemptions and had no choice but to close; today many are electing to walk away....

Climate change sceptic regrets

Following the "accidental" release of sensitive documents the Heartland Institute, which was once committed to free markets

to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems

and to free speech (Hurt feelings dont justify ban free speech)

unreasonable efforts to ban speech likely would not succeed in court, nor should they

has had to resort to threats and intimidation to shut everybody up

the individuals who have commented so far on these documents did not wait for Heartland to confirm or deny the authenticity of the documents. We believe their actions constitute civil and possibly criminal offenses for which we plan to pursue charges and collect payment for damages

This has not gone down well with some of the populace, like 71 year old veteran Gary Wamsley

When I read the original articles on the release of confidential documents from the Heartland Institute board meeting  I was infuriated.

I reacted by sending a strongly worded email to the president and all the board members of the Heartland Institute.

Surprisingly, one board member and institute president Joseph Bast responded to my email.

Joseph Bast was quick to issue more threats

I ask that you apologize for your intemperate and very offensive letter. Since your letter is threatening, I’ve forwarded it to our legal counsel, forensics team, and the FBI. It is important that you not delete the email from your sent file, or any other emails you may have exchanged with other people while preparing it, since this could be evidence in criminal and civil cases.

to which Gary Walmsley responded

Your threatening letter only serves to reinforce my opinion that the documents are in fact all true. Your ludicrous claim that my letter is threatening is a bullying tactic to which I will not succumb. No apology is offered.

NYT is to release the name of the $13.7M anonymous donor.

Woody Harrelson regrets.

Link

It's funny that you make such a convincing redneck, I say, when you are famous for your lefty-liberal views. He grins, and says it wasn't always like that. "I was a freshman in college in 1980, the year that Reagan was elected, and I went around badgering people to vote for him." What? Why? "I was part of the Young Republicans and bought all the bullshit. I'm embarrassed to tell you this because I really think he's one of the worst presidents in history. I was 18 when he went into office. Then almost immediately I noticed these cuts to the aid that I had to go to school – Reagan's first thing was to cut all the social shit."

Aussie real estate takes a haircut.

If this data can be regarded as a reliable indicator real estate in Australia continues to be a bad investment,

Agents confirmed the property slump claimed investors and some business people who had used their homes as collateral, but also washed up hundreds of over-extended home owners.

Many were forced to sell even if it meant taking a substantial loss.

But as in previous property market downturns, most home owners are simply sitting it out.

The largest percentage loss was from a sale in Wickham where the vendor lost 18.11 per cent, or $115,000, in less than two years.

A Dora Creek vendor lost $95,000 in less than a year.

Residex chief executive John Edwards said the number of people burned in property transactions in the Hunter would increase significantly if stamp duty and acquisition costs were taken into account.

Mr Edwards said while many people were suffering, the region’s property market had faired ‘‘pretty well’’ when compared to other places including Sydney and the Gold Coast.

Who would have thought it?

Costa Georgiadis, enthusiastic and dynamic presenter on SBS, is set to front the ABC gardening show. When I was growing up he would have been regarded as a "threat to society."

Next they will be having a gardening show fronted by a Muslim.

That's it for the EMH.

Business Insider;

Sentiment is a key driver of stock market returns in the short-term, notes RBC Capital's Myles Zyblock. Fundamentals are more relevant for longer-term oriented investors.   From his U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly note to clients:

Sentiment and value are cornerstones of the return generation process. We find that shifts in sentiment are critical on short-term investment horizons. For example, our work shows that changes in perception account for about two-thirds of the market’s return on a six-month horizon, and that even under the conditions of attractive value, bearish sentiment can drive prices lower and vice versa. Mean reversion is key to correctly using most sentiment gauges, where one attempts to arbitrage the belief that a recent trend will persist. Meanwhile, the market’s fundamental underpinnings become more important for investors with horizons that extend beyond a two-year time frame.

RBA warn on austerity spiral.

Reserve Bank Deputy Governor, Philip Lowe, addressing the Committee for Economic Development of Australia in Sydney.

..fiscal policies, both in Europe and the United States, were set to be “quite contractionary” both this year and next.

“There is therefore a material risk that fiscal consolidation weakens growth in the short run, which leads to more fiscal consolidation in order to meet previously announced targets and, in turn, yet weaker growth,” Mr Lowe said.

“We are currently seeing this dynamic play out in a couple of the countries in southern Europe.

China bullish on EU.

BEIJING (MarketWatch) -- People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan Wednesday gave the euro zone a vote of confidence, saying he believes the challenges it faces can be solved.

Speaking at an exhibition on the euro in Beijing with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, the Chinese central bank governor said he fully supports monetary measures taken by the European Central Bank during the crisis.

China plans to streamline and expand investment in Europe, he said.

Zhou also repeated recent statements by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that China will become more involved in efforts to resolve the crisis through mechanisms such as the European Financial Stability Facility.

At the same event, Barroso praised the trend of European integration, saying it is "inseparable" from the future of the euro.

Europe is moving toward a fiscal union, while the ECB is ensuring that banks have liquidity, he said. At the same time, it is important not to forget the importance of growing the economy and creating jobs, he added.

The silent majority.

Rupert's foot soldiers have been busy stirring the possum

Roy Morgan research data suggests a considerable bloc of voters are opposed to homosexuality itself, let alone same-sex marriage.

Roy Morgan Single Source survey data from the middle of last year shows that over a quarter of Australians aged 14 and over -- 26.8 per cent -- agreed with the blunt proposition "I believe homosexuality is immoral".

It strikes me that a more considerable bloc of voters did not agree with the proposition, but then I'm not much good at figuring.

DIY finance - the steady rise of the SMSF.

Looking at sources of lending capital

"At present, 2,500 SMSF are being registered each month. Moving forward this is going to be the next big space and we want to make sure our brokers are prepared for it."

"If you look at the data, there is currently $1.2 trillion in super, $300 billion of which is self-managed super funds,"

Link

We are all history.

Bob Rodriguez talks about when he was in college and this guest lecturer, someone called Charlie Munger, was present;

I walked up to Charlie and asked him if there was one thing that I could do that would make me a better investment professional. His answer was, 'Read history, read history, read history.'

Josh Brown (who says he is a reformed broker) looks at the history of the market

You should know that even if the secular bear market isn't quite through with us, we may have seen the worst of his claws and teeth.  You should study the other secular bear markets and then you'd learn something about "wine glass bottoms".  You'd know that in the 1966 to 1982 secular bear market (and all the others before it), the very bottom for stocks occurred NOT in a crescendo at the end - but rather somewhere toward the middle.  Think of 2009 as the middle and most severe point of this secular bear, picture that Dow 6500 print as the stem of the wine glass.  It doesn't mean we're out the woods, but it does mean that the follow-on sell-offs may not be quite as painful and should subside faster:

I have no idea when this secular bear market and the attendant economic malaise will truly be over - but I know for a fact that if you're not planning for its end you're going to miss your chance.  You'll be flatfooted for the pivot, too close-minded for the turn, too fat for the sprint that begins when those Animal Spirits take hold.

So get your shit together.  Now.

Austerity a mistake - German Council of Economic Experts

From an article co-authored by Peter Bofinger,

Overspending by governments, we have been told, triggered this crisis. The cure thus lies in immediate austerity, hence last month's German-led push for a eurozone fiscal compact and the UK's pursuit of similar policies.

But, as demonstrated by the experiences of Greece, Portugal and Spain, this course leads to biting, deep recessions and worsens public indebtedness. The IMF acknowledged as much last week. A focus on growth, not austerity, is the correct answer for Europe's ills.

This is a departure from his previously stated position

The tough stance against Greece is the only correct approach. A cash injection from Brussels would have set a dangerous precedent -- it would have signaled to other problem countries like Portugal or Spain that when the going gets tough, the European Union will rescue them

According to Spiegel Bofinger is a member of the government-appointed German Council of Economic Experts known colloquially here as the "Five Wise Men". This council advises the German Govt on economic policy.

Fama on Fannie, Freddie and the efficient market hypothesis.

Interview with Eugene Fama, who is credited with being father of the Efficient Market Hypothesis by John Cassidy, who writes Rational Irrationality

...

Many people would argue that, in this case, the inefficiency was primarily in the credit markets, not the stock market—that there was a credit bubble that inflated and ultimately burst.
 
I don’t even know what that means. People who get credit have to get it from somewhere. Does a credit bubble mean that people save too much during that period? I don’t know what a credit bubble means. I don’t even know what a bubble means. These words have become popular. I don’t think they have any meaning.

...

Is it not true that in the credit markets people were getting loans, especially home loans, which they shouldn’t have been getting?

That was government policy; that was not a failure of the market. The government decided that it wanted to expand home ownership. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were instructed to buy lower grade mortgages.

But Fannie and Freddie’s purchases of subprime mortgages were pretty small compared to the market as a whole, perhaps twenty or thirty per cent.

(Laughs) Well, what does it take?

Wasn’t the subprime mortgage bond business overwhelmingly a private sector phenomenon involving Wall Street firms, other U.S. financial firms, and European banks?

Well, (it’s easy) to say after the fact that things were wrong...

...

So what caused the recession if it wasn’t the financial crisis?

(Laughs) That’s where economics has always broken down. We don’t know what causes recessions. Now, I’m not a macroeconomist so I don’t feel bad about that. (Laughs again.)

....

I spoke to Richard Posner, whose view is diametrically opposed to yours. He says the financial crisis and recession presents a serious challenge to Chicago economics.
 
Er, he’s not an economist. (Laughs) He’s an expert on law and economics. We are talking macroeconomics and finance. That is not his area.

....
 
So what is your explanation of what happened?
 
What happened is we went through a big recession, people couldn’t make their mortgage payments, and, of course, the ones with the riskiest mortgages were the most likely not to be able to do it. As a consequence, we had a so-called credit crisis. It wasn’t really a credit crisis. It was an economic crisis.

....
 
So you still think that the market is highly efficient at the overall level too?

Yes. And if it isn’t, it’s going to be impossible to tell.
 
For the layman, people who don’t know much about economic theory, is that the fundamental insight of the efficient market hypothesis—that you can’t beat the market?

Right—that’s the practical insight. No matter what research gets done, that one always looks good.

....

 

Steve Keen on housing in 2012

All makes perfect sense

I expect this rate of decline to keep up for 2012, so I’d expect prices to be of up to 10 percent lower than they are now by the end of 2012, in inflation-adjusted terms.

The force driving prices down is the same one that drove them up. Houses are overwhelmingly bought with borrowed money, so keeping house prices where they are requires a constant supply of new mortgages at the same level (relative to GDP per household) as now; rising house prices require new mortgages to be growing compared to income; and house prices fall if mortgages grow more slowly than income. That we’re now in a period of mortgage debt falling relative to income is finally obvious; only the FHVB delayed this happening.

Steve Keen gets a gong from Forbes.

There was, incidentally, a second poll asking who most accurately forecast the financial crisis. The winner was, by a wide margin, Professor Steve Keen of the University of Western Sydney. The page announcing the award says this about Professor Keen’s work:

In December 2005, drawing heavily on his 1995 theoretical paper and convinced that a financial crisis was fast approaching, Keen went high-profile public with his analysis and predictions. He registered the webpage www.debtdeflation.com dedicated to analyzing the “global debt bubble”, which soon attracted a large international audience. At the same time he began appearing on Australian radio and television with his message of approaching financial collapse and how to avoid it. In November 2006 he began publishing his monthly DebtWatch Reports (33 in total). These were substantial papers (upwards of 20 pages on average) that applied his previously developed analytical framework to large amounts of empirical data. Initially these papers analyzed the Global Financial Collapse that he was predicting and then its realization.

Greece again, when will that fat lady sing?

FT marketing editor Christopher Adams tweets

analyst at IB: WSJ/FT falling for Greek political 'theatrics' designed for domestic consumption. Deal agreed.

Adams reminds us that just about everybody is owed by Greece. The IMF warn that if the Eurozone dont get their act together China will crash, by about 4%.

Moodys also argue that Eurozone volatility will stress Australian banks

Rupert chirpily tweets that

Euro can only work if whole euro zone becomes German

and

Economic matters interesting, but shouldn't we be preparing for likely Israeli hit on Iran very soon and unknown consequences?

That's all we need, another war.

Greece on slippery slope.

According to the FT it's all over red rover

"All three party leaders in Greece’s teetering national unity government have opposed new austerity measures demanded by international lenders, forcing eurozone finance ministers to postpone approval of a new €130bn bail-out and moving the country closer to a full-blown default.

So what happened about Greece?

BRUSSELS | Sat Feb 4, 2012 6:38pm EST

(Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers told Greece on Saturday it could not go ahead with an agreed deal to restructure privately-held debt until it guaranteed it would implement reforms needed to secure a second financing package from the euro zone and the IMF.

Euro zone ministers had hoped to meet on Monday to finalize the second Greek bailout, which has to be in place by mid-March if Athens is to avoid a chaotic default. But the meeting was postponed because of Greek reluctance to commit.

....

Euro zone officials said that Greece, betting that the euro zone would not allow a disorderly default because of the possible repercussions across the 17-country single currency bloc, was playing a dangerous game.

"They think, that we think that the unthinkable cannot be thought. But they better think again," the first official said.

Rupert Murdoch and his war on everything.

Our restless warrior tweets,

What does POTUS think he's doing upsetting and energizing 77 million Catholics. Ideology on show. If Romney has brains, this is a killer

If Rupert had as many brains as he wishes Romney he might have he might have understood that Romney had already upset millions of Catholics

In December 2005, Romney required all Massachusetts hospitals, including Catholic ones, to provide emergency contraception to rape victims, even though some Catholics view the morning-after pill as a form of abortion.

..he also said that “in his heart of hearts,’’ he believed that rape victims should have access to emergency contraception.

Newt was quick to leap on the bandwagon

“You want a war on the Catholic Church by Obama?’’ Gingrich said at a rally earlier this week in Tampa. “Guess what: Romney refused to allow Catholic hospitals to have conscience in their dealing with certain circumstances.’’

Meanwhile Rupert's minions are busy helping police with their inquiries

British police arrested four current and former staff of Rupert Murdoch's best-selling Sun tabloid plus a policeman on Saturday as part of an investigation into suspected payments by journalists to officers, police and the newspaper's publisher said.

Police also searched the paper's London offices at publisher News International, News Corp's British arm, in a corruption probe linked to a continuing investigation into phone hacking at its now closed News of the World weekly tabloid.

Walks like a duck, quacks like a duck..shoot it!

Eugenie Scott asks us to

Imagine you’re a middle-school science teacher, and you get to the section of the course where you’re to talk about climate change. You mention the “C” words, and two students walk out of the class.

Or you mention global warming and a hand shoots up.

“Mrs. Brown! My dad says global warming is a hoax!”

Or you come to school one morning and the principal wants to see you because a parent of one of your students has accused you of political bias because you taught what scientists agree about: that the Earth is getting warmer, and human actions have had an important role in this warming.

Or you pick up the newspaper and see that your state legislature is considering a bill that declares that accepted sciences like global warming (and evolution, of course) are “controversial issues” that require “alternatives” to be taught.

Science, whether it be evolution, climate, medical or any other, is under attack hence the need for an organisation working to keep science in public school education. And there is a need to do so as Americans seem to be unsure as the the science of evolution

Almost half — 47% — of Americans surveyed in 2010 agreed that "human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals," and 38% agreed that "the universe began with a huge explosion."

From the above poll it would seem that non science, or nonsense, is winning. Dr. Victor Stenger observes that it is an attack on both science and reality

Recent trends in some academic circles have called into question conventional notions of truth and reality. The claim is made in these circles that all statements, whether in science or literature, are simply narratives -- stories and myths that do nothing more than articulate the cultural prejudices of the narrator. In this view, one narrative is as good as another, since each is expressed in the language of its particular culture and thus contains all the assumptions about truth and reality embedded in that culture. Texts have no intrinsic meaning. Rather, their meanings are created by the reader. The conclusions are then drawn that no narrative can have universal validity and that "Western" science is no exception..

Today's college students, in the United States and elsewhere, hear this line of reasoning from many of their social science and humanities professors. "Alternative medicine" proponents often use similar arguments to reject science as a method of determining health-related truths.

Much of this can be put to changes in the media and more importantly, the medium that the media uses

Only Fox News has maintained its audience size, and this is because of the increasing number of Republicans who regularly get news there.

In terms of specific programs, Fox News hosts Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck and Bill O’Reilly have succeeded in attracting conservative and attentive audiences.

For instance, those who describe themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement make up disproportionately large proportions of the audiences for Limbaugh’s radio show and Fox News opinion programs. This also is the case for supporters of the NRA (National Rifle Association).

Partisan gaps in media credibility continue to grow, with Republicans far more skeptical of most major news sources than Democrats. The one exception is Fox News, which twice as many Republicans believe all or most of (41%) than Democrats (21%).

And because of the popularity of hosts such as Bill O'Reilly news outlets have become outlets for opinion

...DAWKINS: Well, there is a problem when you guys, if I could turn it back on you, try to say that, because you believe what you do, because of a holy book and because of the way you've been brought up, therefore that entitles you to go into science classes and tell teachers what they can or cannot teach. You may think that God oversaw evolution, and that's a point of view that you could probably defend, but leave it out of the science class. 

O'REILLY: It's not fair to leave it out of the science class if the science class is incomplete. And you, by your own admission, say we don't know how it all began. So if the science class is going to say evolution only, but I really don't know how it started, that gap has got to be explored. 

DAWKINS: You must see that it's quite remarkable peace of illogic to say that because science cannot fill a particular gap, therefore we have to turn to Christianity. 

O'REILLY: You don't have to turn anywhere. You have to present it. You don't have to turn to it; you present it. 

DAWKINS: Will you listen to me and stop shouting at me? 

O'REILLY: Well, turn your ear piece down. I'm not shouting; that's the way I usually talk...

Genuine indication of US recovery.

From the BLS

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread in the private sector, with large employment gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Government employment changed little over the month.”

And this, adding another 60,000 jobs to previous numbers:

“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +100,000 to +157,000, and the change for December was revised from +200,000 to +203,000. Monthly revisions result from additional sample reports and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these revisions.”

WSJ; another case of "complete misrepresentation."

The WSJ op-ed says

A recent study of a wide variety of policy options by Yale economist William Nordhaus showed that nearly the highest benefit-to-cost ratio is achieved for a policy that allows 50 more years of economic growth unimpeded by greenhouse gas controls.

The Nordhaus publication The Challenge of Global Warming: Economic Models and Environmental Policy concludes that

an ideal efficient climate change policy would be relatively inexpensive and have a substantial impact on long run climate change. This policy, which we have labeled the “optimal” one, sets emissions reductions to maximize the economic welfare of humans..

..The final message of this study is a simple one: Global warming is a serious problem that will not solve itself. Countries should take cooperative steps to slow global warming. There is no case for delay.

Nordhaus responds to the WSJ

The piece completely misrepresented my work. My work has long taken the view that policies to slow global warming would have net economic benefits, in the trillion of dollars of present value. This is true going back to work in the early 1990s (MIT Press, Yale Press, Science, PNAS, among others). I have advocated a carbon tax for many years as the best way to attack the issue. I can only assume they either completely ignorant of the economics on the issue or are willfully misstating my findings.

Amongst other things Rupert Murdoch is consistently inconsistent

Writing in Forbes Peter Gleick observes that

The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board has long been understood to be not only antagonistic to the facts of climate science, but hostile.

This may have been the result of the appointment by Rupert Murdoch of Robert J. Thomson

Mr. Thomson will soon become much more familiar to The Journal’s staff, because he is the one charged with executing Mr. Murdoch’s vision for the newspaper

and Gerard Baker

Mr. Baker, a neoconservative columnist of acute political views, has been especially active in managing coverage in Washington

Peter Gleick continues

..But in a remarkable example of their unabashed bias, on Friday they published an opinion piece that not only repeats many of the flawed and misleading arguments about climate science, but purports to be of special significance because it was signed by 16 “scientists.”

..255 members of the United States National Academy of Sciences wrote a comparable (but scientifically accurate) essay on the realities of climate change and on the need for improved and serious public debate around the issue, offered it to the Wall Street Journal, and were turned down.

The WSJ editorial claimed that there is No Need to Panic About Global Warming and

There's no compelling scientific argument for drastic action to 'decarbonize' the world's economy.

On many occasions Rupert Murdoch has made his views on climate change clear

Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inaction

We must transform the way we use energy, and of course not only because of climate change... 

Quite clearly Rupert Murdoch is not a man of his word.

An apple a day...

Sony could do with a trip to the doctor

Overtaken by more innovative rivals such as Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics over the past decade, Sony posted a $2.1 billion net loss for October-December, normally a strong quarter boosted by year-end holiday sales..

In contrast Apple presents a picture of robust health

Over the last 8 years Apple's revenue has grown from $6.6b in calendar 2003 to $128b in calendar 2011, a 19.4x increase, or an annualized compound rate of 45% per year.

Data Researcher Carl Howe tweets

If Apple had Amazon's PE, it's stock would sell for $4,550 and its market cap would be $4.2 trillion (10x).

Iven Sosnoff speculates on whether Apple could be the next Polaroid

iPhone sales, at 37 million came in 5 million units above consensus. As for the iPad, it hit 15.4 million units, some 25 percent above consensus. Earnings, naturally, beat quarterly projections by almost 50 percent. This makes Wall Street research models look like a child’s doodling.

Analysts dashed to their keyboards and snappily republished new earnings numbers, around $41 a share for calendar 2012. I could easily stretch this to $45, which puts Apple at 10 times earnings or what U.S. Steel might sell for in a good year...

A man's best trend.

Dogged by the weather.

Societe Generale gives Aussie banks a guernsey.

Link: Business Insider

SocGen Identifies The 40 Most Important Dividend Stocks In The World

Commonwealth Bank of Australia is expected to announce a full year 2012 dividend of AU$3.39

Sector: Banks (Australia)

2011 Yield: 6.6 percent

"For the full fiscal year 2012, consensus is expecting a dividend of AU$3.39, meaning that Commonwealth Bank of Australia is yielding 6.7 percent."


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Westpac is expected to see its dividend increase 4.5 percent in 2012

Sector: Banks (Australia)

2011 Yield: 7.9 percent

Westpac has a September year end, and announced a second half dividend of AU$0.8, on top of the AU$0.76 paid at the half year stage, or a 12.2 percent increase over the prior year. Looking forward to 2012, expectations are for the dividend to increase 4.5 percent to AU$1.67. On current numbers, Westpac is yielding 8.1 percent for 2012FY.


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National Australia Bank is expected to report a dividend increase of 7.6 percent for the first half

Sector: Banks (Australia)

2011 Yield: 7.7 percent

National Australia Bank has a September year end and announced fiscal year end results back in September 2011, reporting a full year dividend of AU$1.72, up 13 percent.

Looking forward, NAB will release first half results on May 10 and consensus expects a 7.6 percent increase in the dividend to AU$0.9.

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ANZ Banking Group will announce results for the first half of 2012 in May
 

Sector:Banks (Australia)

2011 Yield:7.0 percent

ANZ has a September year end. Its Fiscal 2012H1 results will be announced on 2 May 2012. Current consensus forecasts of AU$0.665 is a 3.9 percent increase on the same period a year earlier.